USC Trojans
USC is No. 24 of 138 in the model after week 6 (6-1, 3-1 in conference play). Its projected final record is 8.2-3.8, with a 2% chance to win out and a 12% chance to make the playoff. The AP poll has USC at No. 19.
2026 at a glance
- #24in the model (▼7 from last week)
- 8.2-3.8projected final record
- +9.9points vs. an average FBS team, neutral field
- 12%chance to make the playoff
Scouting report: USC's best unit is its pass offense (No. 6 in FBS); its weakest is its pass defense (No. 130). Overall, the offense ranks No. 14 and the defense No. 128, adjusted for opponents. These ranks rest on 7 games, so expect them to move week to week.
Résumé: No. 15, by wins above what a typical top-25 team would expect against USC's schedule. That measures what the record is worth; the power rank (No. 24) measures how good the team is.
Deserved wins: playing the way it has, USC would usually have won 5.8 games; it has won 6.
Postseason odds: 1% to win the Big Ten, 12% to make the 12-team playoff, 1% to earn a first-round bye and <1% to win the national title. 100% to reach 6 wins. (Model estimates; how the playoff odds work.)
Season stats
- 36.4points per game
- 25.1points allowed per game
- 52%offensive success rate
- 40%success rate allowed
Leaders
- Passing: Jayden Maiava, 2,045 yards, 18 TD, 3 INT
- Rushing: King Miller, 595 yards on 114 carries, 4 TD
- Receiving: Kayden Dixon-Wyatt, 27 catches, 400 yards, 4 TD
Schedule and win odds
| Week | Opponent | Result or win chance | Played like |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | vs San José State | W 42-26 | >99% win |
| 1 | vs Fresno State | W 39-0 | 94% win |
| 2 | vs Louisiana | W 49-30 | 100% win |
| 3 | at Rutgers | W 42-35 | 93% win |
| 4 | vs No. 16 Oregon | L 27-41 | 25% win |
| 5 | vs Washington | W 25-21 | 83% win |
| 6 | at Penn State | W 31-23 | 85% win |
| 8 | at Wisconsin | 46% to win | |
| 9 | vs No. 5 Ohio State | 30% to win | |
| 11 | at No. 6 Indiana | 26% to win | |
| 12 | vs Maryland | 82% to win | |
| 13 | at No. 10 UCLA | 31% to win |
Big Ten in the model
| # | Team | Record | Conf. | Projected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Ohio State | 5-1 | 3-0 | 9.2-2.8 |
| 6 | Indiana | 6-0 | 3-0 | 10.6-1.4 |
| 10 | UCLA | 5-0 | 3-0 | 10.6-1.4 |
| 13 | Nebraska | 5-1 | 2-1 | 8.9-3.1 |
| 16 | Oregon | 3-2 | 1-1 | 7.5-4.5 |
| 21 | Northwestern | 4-1 | 1-1 | 8.3-3.7 |
| 24 | USC | 6-1 | 3-1 | 8.2-3.8 |
| 28 | Wisconsin | 4-1 | 2-0 | 8.3-3.7 |
| 35 | Iowa | 5-1 | 2-1 | 8.3-3.7 |
| 38 | Penn State | 3-3 | 0-3 | 7.0-5.0 |
| 41 | Michigan | 3-2 | 0-2 | 6.0-6.0 |
| 48 | Purdue | 3-3 | 2-1 | 5.7-6.3 |
| 62 | Illinois | 3-3 | 1-2 | 4.8-7.2 |
| 70 | Michigan State | 2-4 | 0-3 | 4.1-7.9 |
| 71 | Washington | 3-3 | 0-3 | 4.6-7.4 |
| 76 | Maryland | 2-4 | 0-3 | 4.4-7.6 |
| 77 | Minnesota | 4-2 | 2-1 | 5.3-6.7 |
| 108 | Rutgers | 1-4 | 0-2 | 2.3-9.7 |
This week's picks and rankings
Every week's top 25, game of the week and picks are in the weekly breakdown. Latest: Week 7 college football picks and power rankings: the model's case for LSU.