Northwestern Wildcats
Northwestern is No. 21 of 138 in the model after week 6 (4-1, 1-1 in conference play). Its projected final record is 8.3-3.7, with a 3% chance to win out and a 8% chance to make the playoff. The AP poll has Northwestern at No. 25.
2026 at a glance
- #21in the model (▲2 from last week)
- 8.3-3.7projected final record
- +10.5points vs. an average FBS team, neutral field
- 8%chance to make the playoff
Scouting report: Northwestern's best unit is its rush offense (No. 7 in FBS); its weakest is its run defense (No. 76). Overall, the offense ranks No. 2 and the defense No. 55, adjusted for opponents. These ranks rest on 5 games, so expect them to move week to week.
Résumé: No. 30, by wins above what a typical top-25 team would expect against Northwestern's schedule. That measures what the record is worth; the power rank (No. 21) measures how good the team is.
Deserved wins: playing the way it has, Northwestern would usually have won 4.2 games; it has won 4.
Postseason odds: 1% to win the Big Ten, 8% to make the 12-team playoff, <1% to earn a first-round bye and <1% to win the national title. 99% to reach 6 wins. (Model estimates; how the playoff odds work.)
Season stats
- 35.4points per game
- 16.2points allowed per game
- 51%offensive success rate
- 44%success rate allowed
Leaders
- Passing: Aidan Chiles, 1,172 yards, 9 TD, 0 INT
- Rushing: Caleb Komolafe, 334 yards on 60 carries, 3 TD
- Receiving: Griffin Wilde, 24 catches, 425 yards, 3 TD
Schedule and win odds
| Week | Opponent | Result or win chance | Played like |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | vs South Dakota State | W 34-18 | 98% win |
| 3 | vs Colorado | W 41-7 | 99% win |
| 4 | at No. 6 Indiana | L 23-29 | 27% win |
| 5 | vs Penn State | W 34-13 | 97% win |
| 6 | vs Ball State | W 45-14 | >99% win |
| 7 | at Michigan State | 71% to win | |
| 8 | vs Rutgers | 91% to win | |
| 9 | at No. 16 Oregon | 38% to win | |
| 10 | vs Iowa | 64% to win | |
| 11 | at No. 5 Ohio State | 20% to win | |
| 12 | at Minnesota | 74% to win | |
| 13 | vs Illinois | 78% to win |
Big Ten in the model
| # | Team | Record | Conf. | Projected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Ohio State | 5-1 | 3-0 | 9.2-2.8 |
| 6 | Indiana | 6-0 | 3-0 | 10.6-1.4 |
| 10 | UCLA | 5-0 | 3-0 | 10.6-1.4 |
| 13 | Nebraska | 5-1 | 2-1 | 8.9-3.1 |
| 16 | Oregon | 3-2 | 1-1 | 7.5-4.5 |
| 21 | Northwestern | 4-1 | 1-1 | 8.3-3.7 |
| 24 | USC | 6-1 | 3-1 | 8.2-3.8 |
| 28 | Wisconsin | 4-1 | 2-0 | 8.3-3.7 |
| 35 | Iowa | 5-1 | 2-1 | 8.3-3.7 |
| 38 | Penn State | 3-3 | 0-3 | 7.0-5.0 |
| 41 | Michigan | 3-2 | 0-2 | 6.0-6.0 |
| 48 | Purdue | 3-3 | 2-1 | 5.7-6.3 |
| 62 | Illinois | 3-3 | 1-2 | 4.8-7.2 |
| 70 | Michigan State | 2-4 | 0-3 | 4.1-7.9 |
| 71 | Washington | 3-3 | 0-3 | 4.6-7.4 |
| 76 | Maryland | 2-4 | 0-3 | 4.4-7.6 |
| 77 | Minnesota | 4-2 | 2-1 | 5.3-6.7 |
| 108 | Rutgers | 1-4 | 0-2 | 2.3-9.7 |
This week's picks and rankings
Every week's top 25, game of the week and picks are in the weekly breakdown. Latest: Week 7 college football picks and power rankings: the model's case for LSU.