UCLA Bruins
UCLA is No. 10 of 138 in the model after week 6 (5-0, 3-0 in conference play). Its projected final record is 10.6-1.4, with a 22% chance to win out and a 65% chance to make the playoff. The AP poll has UCLA at No. 12.
Injury adjustment: starting quarterback Nico Iamaleava is out for the season with a knee injury from the Oregon game, and Ty Dieffenbach, who took over in that game's second half, is expected to start. The model's UCLA rating is built on games Iamaleava started (ESPN). The model moves UCLA's rating -0.2 points for it: half the gap between the two quarterbacks' opponent-adjusted numbers, the share that best predicted results when starters missed games in 2024 and 2025. It's a small change because Nico Iamaleava's passing numbers this season were close to the backup level the model assumes for Ty Dieffenbach. How injuries are handled.
2026 at a glance
- #10in the model (▲8 from last week)
- 10.6-1.4projected final record
- +15.0points vs. an average FBS team, neutral field
- 65%chance to make the playoff
Scouting report: UCLA's best unit is its rush offense (No. 5 in FBS); its weakest is its pass offense (No. 96). Overall, the offense ranks No. 33 and the defense No. 6, adjusted for opponents. These ranks rest on 5 games, so expect them to move week to week.
Résumé: No. 6, by wins above what a typical top-25 team would expect against UCLA's schedule. That measures what the record is worth; the power rank (No. 10) measures how good the team is.
Deserved wins: playing the way it has, UCLA would usually have won 4.6 games; it has won 5.
Postseason odds: 22% to win the Big Ten, 65% to make the 12-team playoff, 14% to earn a first-round bye and 2% to win the national title. >99% to reach 6 wins. (Model estimates; how the playoff odds work.)
Season stats
- 39.2points per game
- 18points allowed per game
- 47%offensive success rate
- 33%success rate allowed
Leaders
- Passing: Nico Iamaleava, 982 yards, 4 TD, 4 INT
- Rushing: Wayne Knight, 548 yards on 71 carries, 10 TD
- Receiving: Semaj Morgan, 19 catches, 229 yards, 2 TD
Schedule and win odds
| Week | Opponent | Result or win chance | Played like |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | at California | W 45-24 | 100% win |
| 2 | vs San Diego State | W 28-10 | >99% win |
| 3 | vs Purdue | W 52-38 | 87% win |
| 4 | at Maryland | W 54-3 | 87% win |
| 6 | at No. 16 Oregon | W 17-15 | 88% win |
| 7 | vs Wisconsin | 71% to win | |
| 8 | vs Michigan State | 88% to win | |
| 9 | vs Nevada | 95% to win | |
| 10 | at Minnesota | 82% to win | |
| 11 | vs Illinois | 85% to win | |
| 12 | at Michigan | 67% to win | |
| 13 | vs No. 24 USC | 69% to win |
Big Ten in the model
| # | Team | Record | Conf. | Projected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Ohio State | 5-1 | 3-0 | 9.2-2.8 |
| 6 | Indiana | 6-0 | 3-0 | 10.6-1.4 |
| 10 | UCLA | 5-0 | 3-0 | 10.6-1.4 |
| 13 | Nebraska | 5-1 | 2-1 | 8.9-3.1 |
| 16 | Oregon | 3-2 | 1-1 | 7.5-4.5 |
| 21 | Northwestern | 4-1 | 1-1 | 8.3-3.7 |
| 24 | USC | 6-1 | 3-1 | 8.2-3.8 |
| 28 | Wisconsin | 4-1 | 2-0 | 8.3-3.7 |
| 35 | Iowa | 5-1 | 2-1 | 8.3-3.7 |
| 38 | Penn State | 3-3 | 0-3 | 7.0-5.0 |
| 41 | Michigan | 3-2 | 0-2 | 6.0-6.0 |
| 48 | Purdue | 3-3 | 2-1 | 5.7-6.3 |
| 62 | Illinois | 3-3 | 1-2 | 4.8-7.2 |
| 70 | Michigan State | 2-4 | 0-3 | 4.1-7.9 |
| 71 | Washington | 3-3 | 0-3 | 4.6-7.4 |
| 76 | Maryland | 2-4 | 0-3 | 4.4-7.6 |
| 77 | Minnesota | 4-2 | 2-1 | 5.3-6.7 |
| 108 | Rutgers | 1-4 | 0-2 | 2.3-9.7 |
This week's picks and rankings
Every week's top 25, game of the week and picks are in the weekly breakdown. Latest: Week 7 college football picks and power rankings: the model's case for LSU.