Indiana Hoosiers

Indiana is No. 6 of 138 in the model after week 6 (6-0, 3-0 in conference play). Its projected final record is 10.6-1.4, with a 20% chance to win out and a 79% chance to make the playoff. The AP poll has Indiana at No. 5.

Updated · See Indiana in the full rankings

2026 at a glance

  • #6in the model (▲2 from last week)
  • 10.6-1.4projected final record
  • +17.6points vs. an average FBS team, neutral field
  • 79%chance to make the playoff

Scouting report: Indiana's best unit is its pass offense (No. 2 in FBS); its weakest is its rush offense (No. 71). Overall, the offense ranks No. 12 and the defense No. 2, adjusted for opponents. These ranks rest on 6 games, so expect them to move week to week.

Résumé: No. 4, by wins above what a typical top-25 team would expect against Indiana's schedule. That measures what the record is worth; the power rank (No. 6) measures how good the team is.

Deserved wins: playing the way it has, Indiana would usually have won 5.5 games; it has won 6.

Postseason odds: 30% to win the Big Ten, 79% to make the 12-team playoff, 27% to earn a first-round bye and 4% to win the national title. 100% to reach 6 wins. (Model estimates; how the playoff odds work.)

Rank by week: Wk 1: 8 → Wk 2: 7 → Wk 3: 11 → Wk 4: 10 → Wk 5: 8 → Wk 6: 6
Week 1: No. 8Week 2: No. 7Week 3: No. 11Week 4: No. 10Week 5: No. 8Week 6: No. 6

Rankings for weeks 1-6 were rebuilt after launch from games through each week; later weeks are published live.

Season stats

  • 40.2points per game
  • 11.8points allowed per game
  • 49%offensive success rate
  • 35%success rate allowed

Success rate: share of plays that keep an offense on schedule (half the yards needed on first down, 70% on second, all of it on third or fourth). Garbage time excluded.

Leaders

  • Passing: Josh Hoover, 1,364 yards, 17 TD, 0 INT
  • Rushing: Turbo Richard, 597 yards on 71 carries, 5 TD
  • Receiving: Charlie Becker, 30 catches, 529 yards, 8 TD

Schedule and win odds

WeekOpponentResult or win chancePlayed like
1vs North TexasW 52-16100% win
2vs HowardW 55-099% win
3vs Western KentuckyW 38-099% win
4vs No. 21 NorthwesternW 29-2373% win
5at RutgersW 47-1598% win
6at No. 13 NebraskaW 20-1776% win
7vs No. 5 Ohio State48% to win
8at Michigan73% to win
9vs Minnesota92% to win
11vs No. 24 USC74% to win
12at Washington84% to win
13vs Purdue85% to win

Win chances come from the model's current ratings, including home field. Played like: how often a team wins a game it played the way it played this one, based on the box score. Rankings shown are the model's.

Big Ten in the model

#TeamRecordConf.Projected
5Ohio State5-13-09.2-2.8
10UCLA5-03-010.6-1.4
13Nebraska5-12-18.9-3.1
16Oregon3-21-17.5-4.5
21Northwestern4-11-18.3-3.7
24USC6-13-18.2-3.8
28Wisconsin4-12-08.3-3.7
35Iowa5-12-18.3-3.7
38Penn State3-30-37.0-5.0
41Michigan3-20-26.0-6.0
48Purdue3-32-15.7-6.3
62Illinois3-31-24.8-7.2
70Michigan State2-40-34.1-7.9
71Washington3-30-34.6-7.4
76Maryland2-40-34.4-7.6
77Minnesota4-22-15.3-6.7
108Rutgers1-40-22.3-9.7

This week's picks and rankings

Every week's top 25, game of the week and picks are in the weekly breakdown. Latest: Week 7 college football picks and power rankings: the model's case for LSU.

How the model works: each team starts from a preseason rating (last season, returning production, roster talent), and every game moves it using the final margin and play-by-play efficiency, adjusted for opponents. Projections simulate the rest of the season 10,000 times. More on the method. Data from CollegeFootballData.com.