Oregon Ducks
Oregon is No. 16 of 138 in the model after week 6 (3-2, 1-1 in conference play). Its projected final record is 7.5-4.5, with a 4% chance to win out and a 13% chance to make the playoff.
2026 at a glance
- #16in the model (▼6 from last week)
- 7.5-4.5projected final record
- +12.7points vs. an average FBS team, neutral field
- 13%chance to make the playoff
Scouting report: Oregon's best unit is its pass defense (No. 11 in FBS); its weakest is its rush offense (No. 107). Overall, the offense ranks No. 100 and the defense No. 9, adjusted for opponents. These ranks rest on 5 games, so expect them to move week to week.
Résumé: No. 37, by wins above what a typical top-25 team would expect against Oregon's schedule. That measures what the record is worth; the power rank (No. 16) measures how good the team is.
Deserved wins: playing the way it has, Oregon would usually have won 3.1 games; it has won 3.
Postseason odds: 2% to win the Big Ten, 13% to make the 12-team playoff, 1% to earn a first-round bye and <1% to win the national title. 93% to reach 6 wins. (Model estimates; how the playoff odds work.)
Season stats
- 41points per game
- 22points allowed per game
- 41%offensive success rate
- 39%success rate allowed
Leaders
- Passing: Dante Moore, 926 yards, 9 TD, 0 INT
- Rushing: Jordon Davison, 301 yards on 62 carries, 6 TD
- Receiving: Evan Stewart, 27 catches, 352 yards, 4 TD
Schedule and win odds
| Week | Opponent | Result or win chance | Played like |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | vs No. 23 Boise State | W 34-27 | 94% win |
| 2 | at Oklahoma State | L 31-39 | 32% win |
| 3 | vs Portland State | W 84-0 | 99% win |
| 4 | at No. 24 USC | W 41-27 | 75% win |
| 6 | vs No. 10 UCLA | L 15-17 | 12% win |
| 7 | vs No. 13 Nebraska | 55% to win | |
| 8 | at Illinois | 72% to win | |
| 9 | vs No. 21 Northwestern | 62% to win | |
| 10 | at No. 5 Ohio State | 25% to win | |
| 11 | vs Michigan | 74% to win | |
| 12 | at Michigan State | 75% to win | |
| 13 | vs Washington | 85% to win |
Big Ten in the model
| # | Team | Record | Conf. | Projected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Ohio State | 5-1 | 3-0 | 9.2-2.8 |
| 6 | Indiana | 6-0 | 3-0 | 10.6-1.4 |
| 10 | UCLA | 5-0 | 3-0 | 10.6-1.4 |
| 13 | Nebraska | 5-1 | 2-1 | 8.9-3.1 |
| 16 | Oregon | 3-2 | 1-1 | 7.5-4.5 |
| 21 | Northwestern | 4-1 | 1-1 | 8.3-3.7 |
| 24 | USC | 6-1 | 3-1 | 8.2-3.8 |
| 28 | Wisconsin | 4-1 | 2-0 | 8.3-3.7 |
| 35 | Iowa | 5-1 | 2-1 | 8.3-3.7 |
| 38 | Penn State | 3-3 | 0-3 | 7.0-5.0 |
| 41 | Michigan | 3-2 | 0-2 | 6.0-6.0 |
| 48 | Purdue | 3-3 | 2-1 | 5.7-6.3 |
| 62 | Illinois | 3-3 | 1-2 | 4.8-7.2 |
| 70 | Michigan State | 2-4 | 0-3 | 4.1-7.9 |
| 71 | Washington | 3-3 | 0-3 | 4.6-7.4 |
| 76 | Maryland | 2-4 | 0-3 | 4.4-7.6 |
| 77 | Minnesota | 4-2 | 2-1 | 5.3-6.7 |
| 108 | Rutgers | 1-4 | 0-2 | 2.3-9.7 |
This week's picks and rankings
Every week's top 25, game of the week and picks are in the weekly breakdown. Latest: Week 7 college football picks and power rankings: the model's case for LSU.