Fresno State Bulldogs
Fresno State is No. 57 of 138 in the model after week 6 (4-2, 1-1 in conference play). Its projected final record is 7.1-3.9, with a 9% chance to win out and a 1% chance to make the playoff.
2026 at a glance
- #57in the model (▲3 from last week)
- 7.1-3.9projected final record
- +1.9points vs. an average FBS team, neutral field
- 1%chance to make the playoff
Scouting report: Fresno State's best unit is its pass offense (No. 15 in FBS); its weakest is its rush offense (No. 131). Overall, the offense ranks No. 58 and the defense No. 45, adjusted for opponents. These ranks rest on 6 games, so expect them to move week to week.
Résumé: No. 53, by wins above what a typical top-25 team would expect against Fresno State's schedule. That measures what the record is worth; the power rank (No. 57) measures how good the team is.
Deserved wins: playing the way it has, Fresno State would usually have won 4.1 games; it has won 4.
Postseason odds: 7% to win the Pac-12, 1% to make the 12-team playoff, 0% to earn a first-round bye and 0% to win the national title. 92% to reach 6 wins. (Model estimates; how the playoff odds work.)
Season stats
- 28.3points per game
- 20points allowed per game
- 40%offensive success rate
- 42%success rate allowed
Leaders
- Passing: Jayden Mandal, 1,252 yards, 8 TD, 1 INT
- Rushing: Rayshon Luke, 286 yards on 42 carries, 1 TD
- Receiving: Josiah Freeman, 28 catches, 375 yards, 2 TD
Schedule and win odds
| Week | Opponent | Result or win chance | Played like |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | at No. 24 USC | L 0-39 | 7% win |
| 2 | vs Sacramento State | W 49-3 | 99% win |
| 3 | at San José State | W 26-10 | 100% win |
| 4 | vs Rice | W 38-24 | 83% win |
| 5 | at Washington State | W 26-6 | 100% win |
| 6 | vs No. 23 Boise State | L 31-38 | 20% win |
| 7 | at San Diego State | 65% to win | |
| 9 | vs Oregon State | 42% to win | |
| 10 | at Utah State | 70% to win | |
| 11 | at Texas State | 49% to win | |
| 12 | vs Colorado State | 78% to win |
Pac-12 in the model
| # | Team | Record | Conf. | Projected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23 | Boise State | 5-1 | 2-0 | 9.0-2.0 |
| 34 | Oregon State | 4-2 | 2-0 | 7.5-3.5 |
| 57 | Fresno State | 4-2 | 1-1 | 7.1-3.9 |
| 66 | Texas State | 2-3 | 0-1 | 5.5-5.5 |
| 101 | San Diego State | 2-4 | 1-1 | 4.1-6.9 |
| 104 | Colorado State | 2-3 | 0-1 | 3.9-7.1 |
| 109 | Washington State | 1-5 | 0-2 | 2.5-8.5 |
| 113 | Utah State | 2-4 | 1-1 | 3.5-7.5 |
This week's picks and rankings
Every week's top 25, game of the week and picks are in the weekly breakdown. Latest: Week 7 college football picks and power rankings: the model's case for LSU.