Wisconsin Badgers
Wisconsin is No. 28 of 138 in the model after week 6 (4-1, 2-0 in conference play). Its projected final record is 8.3-3.7, with a 3% chance to win out and a 6% chance to make the playoff.
2026 at a glance
- #28in the model (▲4 from last week)
- 8.3-3.7projected final record
- +8.7points vs. an average FBS team, neutral field
- 6%chance to make the playoff
Scouting report: Wisconsin's best unit is its pass defense (No. 7 in FBS); its weakest is its pass offense (No. 58). Overall, the offense ranks No. 36 and the defense No. 17, adjusted for opponents. These ranks rest on 5 games, so expect them to move week to week.
Résumé: No. 23, by wins above what a typical top-25 team would expect against Wisconsin's schedule. That measures what the record is worth; the power rank (No. 28) measures how good the team is.
Deserved wins: playing the way it has, Wisconsin would usually have won 3.5 games; it has won 4.
Postseason odds: 4% to win the Big Ten, 6% to make the 12-team playoff, <1% to earn a first-round bye and <1% to win the national title. 98% to reach 6 wins. (Model estimates; how the playoff odds work.)
Season stats
- 31.6points per game
- 16.6points allowed per game
- 38%offensive success rate
- 35%success rate allowed
Leaders
- Passing: Colton Joseph, 1,132 yards, 10 TD, 5 INT
- Rushing: Colton Joseph, 262 yards on 51 carries, 3 TD
- Receiving: Tyrell Henry, 26 catches, 339 yards, 1 TD
Schedule and win odds
| Week | Opponent | Result or win chance | Played like |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | vs No. 2 Notre Dame | L 13-41 | 9% win |
| 2 | vs Western Illinois | W 36-9 | >99% win |
| 3 | vs Eastern Michigan | W 54-10 | 99% win |
| 4 | at Penn State | W 24-20 | 48% win |
| 5 | vs Michigan State | W 31-3 | 93% win |
| 7 | at No. 10 UCLA | 29% to win | |
| 8 | vs No. 24 USC | 54% to win | |
| 9 | at Iowa | 46% to win | |
| 10 | vs Rutgers | 89% to win | |
| 11 | at Maryland | 70% to win | |
| 12 | at Purdue | 56% to win | |
| 13 | vs Minnesota | 81% to win |
Big Ten in the model
| # | Team | Record | Conf. | Projected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Ohio State | 5-1 | 3-0 | 9.2-2.8 |
| 6 | Indiana | 6-0 | 3-0 | 10.6-1.4 |
| 10 | UCLA | 5-0 | 3-0 | 10.6-1.4 |
| 13 | Nebraska | 5-1 | 2-1 | 8.9-3.1 |
| 16 | Oregon | 3-2 | 1-1 | 7.5-4.5 |
| 21 | Northwestern | 4-1 | 1-1 | 8.3-3.7 |
| 24 | USC | 6-1 | 3-1 | 8.2-3.8 |
| 28 | Wisconsin | 4-1 | 2-0 | 8.3-3.7 |
| 35 | Iowa | 5-1 | 2-1 | 8.3-3.7 |
| 38 | Penn State | 3-3 | 0-3 | 7.0-5.0 |
| 41 | Michigan | 3-2 | 0-2 | 6.0-6.0 |
| 48 | Purdue | 3-3 | 2-1 | 5.7-6.3 |
| 62 | Illinois | 3-3 | 1-2 | 4.8-7.2 |
| 70 | Michigan State | 2-4 | 0-3 | 4.1-7.9 |
| 71 | Washington | 3-3 | 0-3 | 4.6-7.4 |
| 76 | Maryland | 2-4 | 0-3 | 4.4-7.6 |
| 77 | Minnesota | 4-2 | 2-1 | 5.3-6.7 |
| 108 | Rutgers | 1-4 | 0-2 | 2.3-9.7 |
This week's picks and rankings
Every week's top 25, game of the week and picks are in the weekly breakdown. Latest: Week 7 college football picks and power rankings: the model's case for LSU.