Iowa Hawkeyes
Iowa is No. 35 of 138 in the model after week 6 (5-1, 2-1 in conference play). Its projected final record is 8.3-3.7, with a 3% chance to win out and a 4% chance to make the playoff. The AP poll has Iowa at No. 17.
2026 at a glance
- #35in the model (▲4 from last week)
- 8.3-3.7projected final record
- +7.5points vs. an average FBS team, neutral field
- 4%chance to make the playoff
Scouting report: Iowa's best unit is its run defense (No. 6 in FBS); its weakest is its pass defense (No. 111). Overall, the offense ranks No. 34 and the defense No. 53, adjusted for opponents. These ranks rest on 6 games, so expect them to move week to week.
Résumé: No. 19, by wins above what a typical top-25 team would expect against Iowa's schedule. That measures what the record is worth; the power rank (No. 35) measures how good the team is.
Deserved wins: playing the way it has, Iowa would usually have won 3.5 games; it has won 5.
Postseason odds: 1% to win the Big Ten, 4% to make the 12-team playoff, <1% to earn a first-round bye and <1% to win the national title. 99% to reach 6 wins. (Model estimates; how the playoff odds work.)
Season stats
- 31points per game
- 14.5points allowed per game
- 47%offensive success rate
- 36%success rate allowed
Leaders
- Passing: Hank Brown, 832 yards, 5 TD, 1 INT
- Rushing: Kamari Moulton, 519 yards on 76 carries, 4 TD
- Receiving: Tony Diaz, 28 catches, 329 yards, 1 TD
Schedule and win odds
| Week | Opponent | Result or win chance | Played like |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | vs Northern Illinois | W 40-0 | 99% win |
| 2 | vs Iowa State | W 16-13 | 40% win |
| 3 | vs Northern Iowa | W 55-0 | 99% win |
| 4 | at Michigan | W 20-19 | 17% win |
| 5 | vs No. 5 Ohio State | L 14-31 | <1% win |
| 6 | at Washington | W 41-24 | 98% win |
| 8 | at Minnesota | 68% to win | |
| 9 | vs Wisconsin | 54% to win | |
| 10 | at No. 21 Northwestern | 36% to win | |
| 11 | vs Purdue | 66% to win | |
| 12 | at Illinois | 60% to win | |
| 13 | vs No. 13 Nebraska | 42% to win |
Big Ten in the model
| # | Team | Record | Conf. | Projected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Ohio State | 5-1 | 3-0 | 9.2-2.8 |
| 6 | Indiana | 6-0 | 3-0 | 10.6-1.4 |
| 10 | UCLA | 5-0 | 3-0 | 10.6-1.4 |
| 13 | Nebraska | 5-1 | 2-1 | 8.9-3.1 |
| 16 | Oregon | 3-2 | 1-1 | 7.5-4.5 |
| 21 | Northwestern | 4-1 | 1-1 | 8.3-3.7 |
| 24 | USC | 6-1 | 3-1 | 8.2-3.8 |
| 28 | Wisconsin | 4-1 | 2-0 | 8.3-3.7 |
| 35 | Iowa | 5-1 | 2-1 | 8.3-3.7 |
| 38 | Penn State | 3-3 | 0-3 | 7.0-5.0 |
| 41 | Michigan | 3-2 | 0-2 | 6.0-6.0 |
| 48 | Purdue | 3-3 | 2-1 | 5.7-6.3 |
| 62 | Illinois | 3-3 | 1-2 | 4.8-7.2 |
| 70 | Michigan State | 2-4 | 0-3 | 4.1-7.9 |
| 71 | Washington | 3-3 | 0-3 | 4.6-7.4 |
| 76 | Maryland | 2-4 | 0-3 | 4.4-7.6 |
| 77 | Minnesota | 4-2 | 2-1 | 5.3-6.7 |
| 108 | Rutgers | 1-4 | 0-2 | 2.3-9.7 |
This week's picks and rankings
Every week's top 25, game of the week and picks are in the weekly breakdown. Latest: Week 7 college football picks and power rankings: the model's case for LSU.