College Football Power Rankings · Big Ten

Illinois Fighting Illini

Illinois is No. 62 of 138 in the model after week 6 (3-3, 1-2 in conference play). Its projected final record is 4.8-7.2, with a <1% chance to win out and a 0% chance to make the playoff.

Vegas disagrees: the model rates Illinois about 7 points lower than the betting market does (Vegas rank: No. 24, model: No. 62). When the model and the line have been 6+ points apart, the line has been closer 62% of the time.

Updated · See Illinois in the full rankings

2026 at a glance

  • #62in the model (– from last week)
  • 4.8-7.2projected final record
  • +0.8points vs. an average FBS team, neutral field
  • 0%chance to make the playoff

Scouting report: Illinois's best unit is its pass offense (No. 27 in FBS); its weakest is its pass defense (No. 137). Overall, the offense ranks No. 28 and the defense No. 137, adjusted for opponents. These ranks rest on 6 games, so expect them to move week to week.

Résumé: No. 78, by wins above what a typical top-25 team would expect against Illinois's schedule. That measures what the record is worth; the power rank (No. 62) measures how good the team is.

Deserved wins: playing the way it has, Illinois would usually have won 2.1 games; it has won 3.

Postseason odds: 0% to win the Big Ten, 0% to make the 12-team playoff, 0% to earn a first-round bye and 0% to win the national title. 28% to reach 6 wins. (Model estimates; how the playoff odds work.)

Rank by week: Wk 1: 39 → Wk 2: 78 → Wk 3: 58 → Wk 4: 59 → Wk 5: 62 → Wk 6: 62
Week 1: No. 39Week 2: No. 78Week 3: No. 58Week 4: No. 59Week 5: No. 62Week 6: No. 62

Rankings for weeks 1-6 were rebuilt after launch from games through each week; later weeks are published live.

Season stats

  • 31.8points per game
  • 27.8points allowed per game
  • 49%offensive success rate
  • 46%success rate allowed

Success rate: share of plays that keep an offense on schedule (half the yards needed on first down, 70% on second, all of it on third or fourth). Garbage time excluded.

Leaders

  • Passing: Katin Houser, 1,440 yards, 12 TD, 4 INT
  • Rushing: Aidan Laughery, 391 yards on 62 carries, 1 TD
  • Receiving: Collin Dixon, 47 catches, 608 yards, 9 TD

Schedule and win odds

WeekOpponentResult or win chancePlayed like
1vs UABW 42-2395% win
2vs DukeL 27-312% win
3vs Southern IllinoisW 48-1099% win
4at No. 5 Ohio StateL 19-425% win
5vs PurdueL 17-245% win
6at Michigan StateW 38-37<1% win
8vs No. 16 Oregon28% to win
9at Maryland51% to win
10vs No. 13 Nebraska27% to win
11at No. 10 UCLA15% to win
12vs Iowa40% to win
13at No. 21 Northwestern22% to win

Win chances come from the model's current ratings, including home field. Played like: how often a team wins a game it played the way it played this one, based on the box score. Rankings shown are the model's.

Big Ten in the model

#TeamRecordConf.Projected
5Ohio State5-13-09.2-2.8
6Indiana6-03-010.6-1.4
10UCLA5-03-010.6-1.4
13Nebraska5-12-18.9-3.1
16Oregon3-21-17.5-4.5
21Northwestern4-11-18.3-3.7
24USC6-13-18.2-3.8
28Wisconsin4-12-08.3-3.7
35Iowa5-12-18.3-3.7
38Penn State3-30-37.0-5.0
41Michigan3-20-26.0-6.0
48Purdue3-32-15.7-6.3
62Illinois3-31-24.8-7.2
70Michigan State2-40-34.1-7.9
71Washington3-30-34.6-7.4
76Maryland2-40-34.4-7.6
77Minnesota4-22-15.3-6.7
108Rutgers1-40-22.3-9.7

This week's picks and rankings

Every week's top 25, game of the week and picks are in the weekly breakdown. Latest: Week 7 college football picks and power rankings: the model's case for LSU.

How the model works: each team starts from a preseason rating (last season, returning production, roster talent), and every game moves it using the final margin and play-by-play efficiency, adjusted for opponents. Projections simulate the rest of the season 10,000 times. More on the method. Data from CollegeFootballData.com.