California Golden Bears
California is No. 79 of 138 in the model after week 6 (3-3, 2-1 in conference play). Its projected final record is 5.4-6.6, with a 1% chance to win out and a <1% chance to make the playoff.
2026 at a glance
- #79in the model (▲10 from last week)
- 5.4-6.6projected final record
- −2.8points vs. an average FBS team, neutral field
- <1%chance to make the playoff
Scouting report: California's best unit is its pass defense (No. 52 in FBS); its weakest is its run defense (No. 134). Overall, the offense ranks No. 89 and the defense No. 96, adjusted for opponents. These ranks rest on 6 games, so expect them to move week to week.
Résumé: No. 79, by wins above what a typical top-25 team would expect against California's schedule. That measures what the record is worth; the power rank (No. 79) measures how good the team is.
Deserved wins: playing the way it has, California would usually have won 2.2 games; it has won 3.
Postseason odds: <1% to win the ACC, <1% to make the 12-team playoff, 0% to earn a first-round bye and 0% to win the national title. 44% to reach 6 wins. (Model estimates; how the playoff odds work.)
Season stats
- 26.7points per game
- 25.5points allowed per game
- 38%offensive success rate
- 37%success rate allowed
Leaders
- Passing: Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele, 1,180 yards, 8 TD, 5 INT
- Rushing: Adam Mohammed, 336 yards on 73 carries, 3 TD
- Receiving: Ian Strong, 28 catches, 396 yards, 1 TD
Schedule and win odds
| Week | Opponent | Result or win chance | Played like |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | vs No. 10 UCLA | L 24-45 | 0% win |
| 2 | at Syracuse | W 21-18 | 54% win |
| 3 | vs Wagner | W 49-7 | 96% win |
| 4 | vs Clemson | L 10-24 | 6% win |
| 5 | at UNLV | L 31-39 | 5% win |
| 6 | vs Virginia Tech | W 25-20 | 55% win |
| 7 | vs No. 22 Wake Forest | 26% to win | |
| 8 | at SMU | 29% to win | |
| 9 | at NC State | 46% to win | |
| 11 | at Virginia | 33% to win | |
| 12 | vs Stanford | 71% to win | |
| 13 | vs Pittsburgh | 32% to win |
ACC in the model
| # | Team | Record | Conf. | Projected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Miami | 5-0 | 3-0 | 10.6-1.4 |
| 22 | Wake Forest | 5-1 | 3-1 | 9.5-2.5 |
| 32 | Louisville | 3-3 | 2-2 | 6.7-5.3 |
| 36 | Pittsburgh | 5-1 | 2-1 | 8.5-3.5 |
| 39 | Duke | 4-1 | 1-1 | 7.8-4.2 |
| 43 | North Carolina | 3-2 | 1-1 | 6.7-5.3 |
| 44 | Florida State | 3-3 | 1-2 | 6.1-5.9 |
| 50 | SMU | 4-1 | 2-1 | 7.7-4.3 |
| 52 | Clemson | 3-2 | 2-1 | 7.0-5.0 |
| 53 | Virginia Tech | 4-2 | 1-2 | 7.1-4.9 |
| 59 | Virginia | 4-2 | 2-1 | 6.6-5.4 |
| 72 | Syracuse | 2-3 | 0-3 | 4.7-7.3 |
| 79 | California | 3-3 | 2-1 | 5.4-6.6 |
| 84 | Georgia Tech | 2-3 | 1-1 | 4.1-7.9 |
| 91 | NC State | 3-3 | 1-2 | 5.4-6.6 |
| 110 | Boston College | 2-3 | 0-2 | 3.3-8.7 |
| 112 | Stanford | 2-4 | 1-3 | 4.2-7.8 |
This week's picks and rankings
Every week's top 25, game of the week and picks are in the weekly breakdown. Latest: Week 7 college football picks and power rankings: the model's case for LSU.