Nevada Wolf Pack
Nevada is No. 111 of 138 in the model after week 6 (2-3, 1-1 in conference play). Its projected final record is 4.7-7.3, with a 0% chance to win out and a 0% chance to make the playoff.
2026 at a glance
- #111in the model (▲16 from last week)
- 4.7-7.3projected final record
- −8.9points vs. an average FBS team, neutral field
- 0%chance to make the playoff
Scouting report: Nevada's best unit is its rush offense (No. 45 in FBS); its weakest is its pass offense (No. 132). Overall, the offense ranks No. 112 and the defense No. 107, adjusted for opponents. These ranks rest on 5 games, so expect them to move week to week.
Résumé: No. 121, by wins above what a typical top-25 team would expect against Nevada's schedule. That measures what the record is worth; the power rank (No. 111) measures how good the team is.
Deserved wins: playing the way it has, Nevada would usually have won 2 games; it has won 2.
Postseason odds: 1% to win the Mountain West, 0% to make the 12-team playoff, 0% to earn a first-round bye and 0% to win the national title. 23% to reach 6 wins. (Model estimates; how the playoff odds work.)
Season stats
- 27.8points per game
- 22points allowed per game
- 42%offensive success rate
- 38%success rate allowed
Leaders
- Passing: Carter Jones, 654 yards, 3 TD, 2 INT
- Rushing: Dominic Kelley, 440 yards on 76 carries, 4 TD
- Receiving: Gary Givens III, 12 catches, 210 yards, 0 TD
Schedule and win odds
| Week | Opponent | Result or win chance | Played like |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | vs Western Kentucky | W 49-14 | 99% win |
| 2 | vs Montana State | L 7-20 | 1% win |
| 3 | at Middle Tennessee | L 20-27 | 4% win |
| 4 | vs Air Force | L 33-36 | 0% win |
| 6 | at UTEP | W 30-13 | 100% win |
| 7 | at North Dakota State | 22% to win | |
| 8 | vs San José State | 60% to win | |
| 9 | at No. 10 UCLA | 5% to win | |
| 10 | vs New Mexico | 18% to win | |
| 11 | at Northern Illinois | 70% to win | |
| 12 | vs Hawai'i | 70% to win | |
| 13 | at UNLV | 23% to win |
Mountain West in the model
| # | Team | Record | Conf. | Projected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 | New Mexico | 4-1 | 1-0 | 9.8-2.2 |
| 63 | North Dakota State | 5-1 | 2-1 | 9.4-2.6 |
| 64 | UNLV | 4-2 | 2-0 | 8.0-4.0 |
| 83 | Air Force | 4-1 | 2-1 | 7.9-4.1 |
| 111 | Nevada | 2-3 | 1-1 | 4.7-7.3 |
| 116 | San José State | 3-3 | 1-1 | 5.9-7.1 |
| 130 | Wyoming | 3-3 | 2-1 | 5.0-7.0 |
| 132 | Hawai'i | 1-5 | 0-3 | 3.4-8.6 |
| 133 | UTEP | 1-5 | 0-2 | 3.1-8.9 |
| 135 | Northern Illinois | 0-5 | 0-1 | 1.9-10.1 |
This week's picks and rankings
Every week's top 25, game of the week and picks are in the weekly breakdown. Latest: Week 7 college football picks and power rankings: the model's case for LSU.