Ball State Cardinals
Ball State is No. 131 of 138 in the model after week 6 (1-5, 0-2 in conference play). Its projected final record is 3.5-8.5, with a 1% chance to win out and a 0% chance to make the playoff.
2026 at a glance
- #131in the model (▼1 from last week)
- 3.5-8.5projected final record
- −14.6points vs. an average FBS team, neutral field
- 0%chance to make the playoff
Scouting report: Ball State's best unit is its pass offense (No. 60 in FBS); its weakest is its rush offense (No. 128). Overall, the offense ranks No. 101 and the defense No. 118, adjusted for opponents. These ranks rest on 6 games, so expect them to move week to week.
Résumé: No. 128, by wins above what a typical top-25 team would expect against Ball State's schedule. That measures what the record is worth; the power rank (No. 131) measures how good the team is.
Deserved wins: playing the way it has, Ball State would usually have won 1.1 games; it has won 1.
Postseason odds: <1% to win the Mid-American, 0% to make the 12-team playoff, 0% to earn a first-round bye and 0% to win the national title. 5% to reach 6 wins. (Model estimates; how the playoff odds work.)
Season stats
- 18.3points per game
- 39points allowed per game
- 35%offensive success rate
- 45%success rate allowed
Leaders
- Passing: Keldric Luster, 871 yards, 6 TD, 4 INT
- Rushing: TJ Horton, 312 yards on 43 carries, 5 TD
- Receiving: Donovan Hamilton, 22 catches, 273 yards, 1 TD
Schedule and win odds
| Week | Opponent | Result or win chance | Played like |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | at No. 5 Ohio State | L 3-56 | 2% win |
| 2 | vs Stony Brook | W 41-17 | 99% win |
| 3 | at Liberty | L 15-51 | 1% win |
| 4 | at Kent State | L 13-26 | 1% win |
| 5 | vs Toledo | L 24-39 | 9% win |
| 6 | at No. 21 Northwestern | L 14-45 | <1% win |
| 7 | at Bowling Green | 37% to win | |
| 8 | vs Sacramento State | 78% to win | |
| 10 | at Massachusetts | 24% to win | |
| 11 | vs Buffalo | 48% to win | |
| 12 | at Ohio | 20% to win | |
| 13 | vs Central Michigan | 46% to win |
Mid-American in the model
| # | Team | Record | Conf. | Projected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 65 | Western Michigan | 4-2 | 2-0 | 8.3-3.7 |
| 75 | Toledo | 4-2 | 1-1 | 8.0-4.0 |
| 89 | Ohio | 4-2 | 2-0 | 8.1-3.9 |
| 98 | Miami (OH) | 3-3 | 1-1 | 6.5-5.5 |
| 99 | Massachusetts | 4-2 | 1-2 | 7.4-4.6 |
| 115 | Eastern Michigan | 4-3 | 3-0 | 6.0-6.0 |
| 119 | Central Michigan | 3-3 | 1-1 | 6.1-5.9 |
| 122 | Buffalo | 3-3 | 1-1 | 6.0-6.0 |
| 125 | Bowling Green | 2-4 | 2-0 | 4.4-7.6 |
| 126 | Kent State | 2-4 | 1-2 | 4.8-7.2 |
| 131 | Ball State | 1-5 | 0-2 | 3.5-8.5 |
| 134 | Akron | 1-5 | 0-2 | 2.4-9.6 |
| 138 | Sacramento State | 1-5 | 0-3 | 2.1-9.9 |
This week's picks and rankings
Every week's top 25, game of the week and picks are in the weekly breakdown. Latest: Week 7 college football picks and power rankings: the model's case for LSU.