Northern Illinois Huskies

Northern Illinois is No. 135 of 138 in the model after week 6 (0-5, 0-1 in conference play). Its projected final record is 1.9-10.1, with a 0% chance to win out and a 0% chance to make the playoff.

Vegas disagrees: the model rates Northern Illinois about 8 points lower than the betting market does (Vegas rank: No. 128, model: No. 135). When the model and the line have been 6+ points apart, the line has been closer 62% of the time.

Updated · See Northern Illinois in the full rankings

2026 at a glance

  • #135in the model (– from last week)
  • 1.9-10.1projected final record
  • −20.1points vs. an average FBS team, neutral field
  • 0%chance to make the playoff

Scouting report: Northern Illinois's best unit is its pass defense (No. 73 in FBS); its weakest is its rush offense (No. 123). Overall, the offense ranks No. 122 and the defense No. 109, adjusted for opponents. These ranks rest on 5 games, so expect them to move week to week.

Résumé: No. 132, by wins above what a typical top-25 team would expect against Northern Illinois's schedule. That measures what the record is worth; the power rank (No. 135) measures how good the team is.

Deserved wins: playing the way it has, Northern Illinois would usually have won 0.4 games; it has won 0.

Postseason odds: 0% to win the Mountain West, 0% to make the 12-team playoff, 0% to earn a first-round bye and 0% to win the national title. <1% to reach 6 wins. (Model estimates; how the playoff odds work.)

Rank by week: Wk 1: 132 → Wk 2: 136 → Wk 3: 137 → Wk 4: 136 → Wk 5: 135 → Wk 6: 135
Week 1: No. 132Week 2: No. 136Week 3: No. 137Week 4: No. 136Week 5: No. 135Week 6: No. 135

Rankings for weeks 1-6 were rebuilt after launch from games through each week; later weeks are published live.

Season stats

  • 12.4points per game
  • 34.6points allowed per game
  • 40%offensive success rate
  • 50%success rate allowed

Success rate: share of plays that keep an offense on schedule (half the yards needed on first down, 70% on second, all of it on third or fourth). Garbage time excluded.

Leaders

  • Passing: Taron Dickens, 977 yards, 3 TD, 3 INT
  • Rushing: Telly Johnson Jr., 300 yards on 65 carries, 3 TD
  • Receiving: DeAree Rogers, 38 catches, 333 yards, 2 TD

Schedule and win odds

WeekOpponentResult or win chancePlayed like
1at IowaL 0-401% win
2vs Illinois StateL 24-2833% win
3at No. 20 ArizonaL 17-422% win
4at Georgia StateL 14-350% win
6vs Air ForceL 7-288% win
7at Wyoming30% to win
8vs Hawai'i43% to win
9at UNLV8% to win
10at San José State22% to win
11vs Nevada30% to win
12at North Dakota State7% to win
13vs UTEP49% to win

Win chances come from the model's current ratings, including home field. Played like: how often a team wins a game it played the way it played this one, based on the box score. Rankings shown are the model's.

Mountain West in the model

#TeamRecordConf.Projected
29New Mexico4-11-09.8-2.2
63North Dakota State5-12-19.4-2.6
64UNLV4-22-08.0-4.0
83Air Force4-12-17.9-4.1
111Nevada2-31-14.7-7.3
116San José State3-31-15.9-7.1
130Wyoming3-32-15.0-7.0
132Hawai'i1-50-33.4-8.6
133UTEP1-50-23.1-8.9

This week's picks and rankings

Every week's top 25, game of the week and picks are in the weekly breakdown. Latest: Week 7 college football picks and power rankings: the model's case for LSU.

How the model works: each team starts from a preseason rating (last season, returning production, roster talent), and every game moves it using the final margin and play-by-play efficiency, adjusted for opponents. Projections simulate the rest of the season 10,000 times. More on the method. Data from CollegeFootballData.com.