North Texas Mean Green: Playoff Odds & Schedule 2026

2026 at a glance

#51in the model (▼1 from last week)
8.1-3.9projected final record
+3.4points vs. an average FBS team, neutral field
1%chance to make the playoff

Scouting report: North Texas's best unit is its pass offense (No. 3 in FBS); its weakest is its pass defense (No. 124). Overall, the offense ranks No. 3 and the defense No. 90, adjusted for opponents. These ranks rest on 6 games, so expect them to move week to week.

Résumé: No. 50, by wins above what a typical top-25 team would expect against North Texas's schedule. That measures what the record is worth; the power rank (No. 51) measures how good the team is.

Deserved wins: playing the way it has, North Texas would usually have won 3.4 games; it has won 4.

Postseason odds: 27% to win the American Athletic, 1% to make the 12-team playoff, 0% to earn a first-round bye and 0% to win the national title. 98% to reach 6 wins. (Model estimates; how the playoff odds work.)

Rank by week: Wk 1: 66 → Wk 2: 31 → Wk 3: 61 → Wk 4: 53 → Wk 5: 50 → Wk 6: 51

Rankings for weeks 1-6 were rebuilt after launch from games through each week; later weeks are published live.

Season stats

42.2points per game
29.2points allowed per game
48%offensive success rate
44%success rate allowed

Success rate: share of plays that keep an offense on schedule (half the yards needed on first down, 70% on second, all of it on third or fourth). Garbage time excluded.

Leaders

Passing: Tayven Jackson, 1,859 yards, 15 TD, 4 INT
Rushing: Jahiem White, 676 yards on 97 carries, 9 TD
Receiving: Justin Stevenson, 33 catches, 453 yards, 5 TD

Schedule and win odds

Week	Opponent	Result or win chance	Played like
1	at No. 6 Indiana	L 16-52	1% win
2	vs UNLV	W 44-6	100% win
3	at Texas State	L 35-49	0% win
4	vs Houston Christian	W 63-14	99% win
5	at Tulsa	W 45-44	45% win
6	vs Charlotte	W 50-10	99% win
8	at Navy	64% to win
9	vs Florida Atlantic	69% to win
10	vs Rice	80% to win
11	at UTSA	46% to win
12	at Tulane	63% to win
13	vs UAB	86% to win

Win chances come from the model's current ratings, including home field. Played like: how often a team wins a game it played the way it played this one, based on the box score. Rankings shown are the model's.

American Athletic in the model

#	Team	Record	Conf.	Projected
40	Memphis	5-1	2-0	9.2-2.8
51	North Texas	4-2	2-0	8.1-3.9
55	UTSA	5-1	2-0	8.9-3.1
60	South Florida	4-2	1-2	7.9-4.1
67	East Carolina	3-2	1-0	6.5-5.5
74	Florida Atlantic	4-1	1-0	7.3-4.7
86	Army	3-2	2-1	6.3-5.7
92	Tulsa	3-3	0-2	6.2-5.8
93	Tulane	2-3	0-1	5.3-6.7
96	Navy	2-3	1-2	4.8-7.2
100	Temple	2-4	1-1	5.1-6.9
102	Rice	1-5	0-2	3.4-8.6
124	UAB	3-3	1-1	5.7-6.3
137	Charlotte	0-6	0-2	0.9-11.1

This week's picks and rankings

Every week's top 25, game of the week and picks are in the weekly breakdown. Latest: Week 7 college football picks and power rankings: the model's case for LSU.

How the model works: each team starts from a preseason rating (last season, returning production, roster talent), and every game moves it using the final margin and play-by-play efficiency, adjusted for opponents. Projections simulate the rest of the season 10,000 times. More on the method. Data from CollegeFootballData.com.