Duke Blue Devils
Duke is No. 39 of 138 in the model after week 6 (4-1, 1-1 in conference play). Its projected final record is 7.8-4.2, with a 1% chance to win out and a 2% chance to make the playoff.
2026 at a glance
- #39in the model (▼6 from last week)
- 7.8-4.2projected final record
- +6.1points vs. an average FBS team, neutral field
- 2%chance to make the playoff
Scouting report: Duke's best unit is its run defense (No. 24 in FBS); its weakest is its pass defense (No. 91). Overall, the offense ranks No. 83 and the defense No. 60, adjusted for opponents. These ranks rest on 5 games, so expect them to move week to week.
Résumé: No. 42, by wins above what a typical top-25 team would expect against Duke's schedule. That measures what the record is worth; the power rank (No. 39) measures how good the team is.
Deserved wins: playing the way it has, Duke would usually have won 4.5 games; it has won 4.
Postseason odds: 2% to win the ACC, 2% to make the 12-team playoff, 0% to earn a first-round bye and 0% to win the national title. 96% to reach 6 wins. (Model estimates; how the playoff odds work.)
Season stats
- 34points per game
- 14.4points allowed per game
- 44%offensive success rate
- 39%success rate allowed
Leaders
- Passing: Walker Eget, 980 yards, 7 TD, 1 INT
- Rushing: Nate Sheppard, 743 yards on 118 carries, 8 TD
- Receiving: Jeremiah Hasley, 19 catches, 234 yards, 0 TD
Schedule and win odds
| Week | Opponent | Result or win chance | Played like |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | vs Tulane | W 17-3 | 94% win |
| 2 | at Illinois | W 31-27 | 98% win |
| 3 | vs Stanford | W 35-7 | 99% win |
| 4 | vs William & Mary | W 62-7 | >99% win |
| 6 | at Georgia Tech | L 25-28 | 56% win |
| 7 | vs North Carolina | 59% to win | |
| 8 | at Virginia | 55% to win | |
| 9 | vs Boston College | 86% to win | |
| 10 | at NC State | 68% to win | |
| 11 | at No. 4 Miami | 13% to win | |
| 12 | vs Clemson | 63% to win | |
| 13 | at No. 22 Wake Forest | 33% to win |
ACC in the model
| # | Team | Record | Conf. | Projected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Miami | 5-0 | 3-0 | 10.6-1.4 |
| 22 | Wake Forest | 5-1 | 3-1 | 9.5-2.5 |
| 32 | Louisville | 3-3 | 2-2 | 6.7-5.3 |
| 36 | Pittsburgh | 5-1 | 2-1 | 8.5-3.5 |
| 39 | Duke | 4-1 | 1-1 | 7.8-4.2 |
| 43 | North Carolina | 3-2 | 1-1 | 6.7-5.3 |
| 44 | Florida State | 3-3 | 1-2 | 6.1-5.9 |
| 50 | SMU | 4-1 | 2-1 | 7.7-4.3 |
| 52 | Clemson | 3-2 | 2-1 | 7.0-5.0 |
| 53 | Virginia Tech | 4-2 | 1-2 | 7.1-4.9 |
| 59 | Virginia | 4-2 | 2-1 | 6.6-5.4 |
| 72 | Syracuse | 2-3 | 0-3 | 4.7-7.3 |
| 79 | California | 3-3 | 2-1 | 5.4-6.6 |
| 84 | Georgia Tech | 2-3 | 1-1 | 4.1-7.9 |
| 91 | NC State | 3-3 | 1-2 | 5.4-6.6 |
| 110 | Boston College | 2-3 | 0-2 | 3.3-8.7 |
| 112 | Stanford | 2-4 | 1-3 | 4.2-7.8 |
This week's picks and rankings
Every week's top 25, game of the week and picks are in the weekly breakdown. Latest: Week 7 college football picks and power rankings: the model's case for LSU.