College Football Power Rankings · ACC

SMU Mustangs

SMU is No. 50 of 138 in the model after week 6 (4-1, 2-1 in conference play). Its projected final record is 7.7-4.3, with a 1% chance to win out and a 3% chance to make the playoff. The AP poll has SMU at No. 24.

Vegas disagrees: the model rates SMU about 7 points lower than the betting market does (Vegas rank: No. 18, model: No. 50). When the model and the line have been 6+ points apart, the line has been closer 62% of the time.

Updated · See SMU in the full rankings

2026 at a glance

  • #50in the model (▼9 from last week)
  • 7.7-4.3projected final record
  • +3.5points vs. an average FBS team, neutral field
  • 3%chance to make the playoff

Scouting report: SMU's best unit is its pass offense (No. 32 in FBS); its weakest is its rush offense (No. 106). Overall, the offense ranks No. 60 and the defense No. 69, adjusted for opponents. These ranks rest on 5 games, so expect them to move week to week.

Résumé: No. 34, by wins above what a typical top-25 team would expect against SMU's schedule. That measures what the record is worth; the power rank (No. 50) measures how good the team is.

Deserved wins: playing the way it has, SMU would usually have won 3.7 games; it has won 4.

Postseason odds: 3% to win the ACC, 3% to make the 12-team playoff, 0% to earn a first-round bye and 0% to win the national title. 95% to reach 6 wins. (Model estimates; how the playoff odds work.)

Rank by week: Wk 1: 13 → Wk 2: 16 → Wk 3: 23 → Wk 4: 34 → Wk 5: 41 → Wk 6: 50
Week 1: No. 13Week 2: No. 16Week 3: No. 23Week 4: No. 34Week 5: No. 41Week 6: No. 50

Rankings for weeks 1-6 were rebuilt after launch from games through each week; later weeks are published live.

Season stats

  • 34.6points per game
  • 23points allowed per game
  • 50%offensive success rate
  • 37%success rate allowed

Success rate: share of plays that keep an offense on schedule (half the yards needed on first down, 70% on second, all of it on third or fourth). Garbage time excluded.

Leaders

  • Passing: Kevin Jennings, 1,613 yards, 14 TD, 5 INT
  • Rushing: Kendrick Raphael, 418 yards on 77 carries, 6 TD
  • Receiving: Yamir Knight, 29 catches, 367 yards, 2 TD

Schedule and win odds

WeekOpponentResult or win chancePlayed like
1at Florida StateW 27-2496% win
2vs UC DavisW 56-1099% win
3at LouisvilleL 31-410% win
4vs Missouri StateW 34-2498% win
5vs Boston CollegeW 25-1676% win
7vs Virginia62% to win
8vs California71% to win
9at Syracuse55% to win
10vs Virginia Tech57% to win
11vs No. 22 Wake Forest40% to win
12at No. 2 Notre Dame7% to win
13at Stanford73% to win

Win chances come from the model's current ratings, including home field. Played like: how often a team wins a game it played the way it played this one, based on the box score. Rankings shown are the model's.

ACC in the model

#TeamRecordConf.Projected
4Miami5-03-010.6-1.4
22Wake Forest5-13-19.5-2.5
32Louisville3-32-26.7-5.3
36Pittsburgh5-12-18.5-3.5
39Duke4-11-17.8-4.2
43North Carolina3-21-16.7-5.3
44Florida State3-31-26.1-5.9
50SMU4-12-17.7-4.3
52Clemson3-22-17.0-5.0
53Virginia Tech4-21-27.1-4.9
59Virginia4-22-16.6-5.4
72Syracuse2-30-34.7-7.3
79California3-32-15.4-6.6
84Georgia Tech2-31-14.1-7.9
91NC State3-31-25.4-6.6
110Boston College2-30-23.3-8.7
112Stanford2-41-34.2-7.8

This week's picks and rankings

Every week's top 25, game of the week and picks are in the weekly breakdown. Latest: Week 7 college football picks and power rankings: the model's case for LSU.

How the model works: each team starts from a preseason rating (last season, returning production, roster talent), and every game moves it using the final margin and play-by-play efficiency, adjusted for opponents. Projections simulate the rest of the season 10,000 times. More on the method. Data from CollegeFootballData.com.