Clemson Tigers

Clemson is No. 52 of 138 in the model after week 6 (3-2, 2-1 in conference play). Its projected final record is 7.0-5.0, with a 2% chance to win out and a 1% chance to make the playoff.

Updated · See Clemson in the full rankings

2026 at a glance

  • #52in the model (▼5 from last week)
  • 7.0-5.0projected final record
  • +3.4points vs. an average FBS team, neutral field
  • 1%chance to make the playoff

Scouting report: Clemson's best unit is its pass defense (No. 1 in FBS); its weakest is its run defense (No. 111). Overall, the offense ranks No. 104 and the defense No. 16, adjusted for opponents. These ranks rest on 5 games, so expect them to move week to week.

Résumé: No. 31, by wins above what a typical top-25 team would expect against Clemson's schedule. That measures what the record is worth; the power rank (No. 52) measures how good the team is.

Deserved wins: playing the way it has, Clemson would usually have won 2.9 games; it has won 3.

Postseason odds: 1% to win the ACC, 1% to make the 12-team playoff, 0% to earn a first-round bye and 0% to win the national title. 87% to reach 6 wins. (Model estimates; how the playoff odds work.)

Rank by week: Wk 1: 59 → Wk 2: 27 → Wk 3: 49 → Wk 4: 36 → Wk 5: 47 → Wk 6: 52
Week 1: No. 59Week 2: No. 27Week 3: No. 49Week 4: No. 36Week 5: No. 47Week 6: No. 52

Rankings for weeks 1-6 were rebuilt after launch from games through each week; later weeks are published live.

Season stats

  • 19.4points per game
  • 25.8points allowed per game
  • 35%offensive success rate
  • 42%success rate allowed

Success rate: share of plays that keep an offense on schedule (half the yards needed on first down, 70% on second, all of it on third or fourth). Garbage time excluded.

Leaders

  • Passing: Tait Reynolds, 818 yards, 1 TD, 3 INT
  • Rushing: Gideon Davidson, 371 yards on 66 carries, 4 TD
  • Receiving: Bryant Wesco Jr., 25 catches, 315 yards, 0 TD

Schedule and win odds

WeekOpponentResult or win chancePlayed like
1at No. 8 LSUL 10-511% win
2vs Georgia SouthernW 22-794% win
3vs North CarolinaW 28-2092% win
4at CaliforniaW 24-1094% win
5vs No. 4 MiamiL 13-414% win
7vs Charleston Southern97% to win
8vs Virginia Tech57% to win
9at Florida State40% to win
10at Syracuse55% to win
11vs Georgia Tech72% to win
12at Duke37% to win
13vs South Carolina46% to win

Win chances come from the model's current ratings, including home field. Played like: how often a team wins a game it played the way it played this one, based on the box score. Rankings shown are the model's.

ACC in the model

#TeamRecordConf.Projected
4Miami5-03-010.6-1.4
22Wake Forest5-13-19.5-2.5
32Louisville3-32-26.7-5.3
36Pittsburgh5-12-18.5-3.5
39Duke4-11-17.8-4.2
43North Carolina3-21-16.7-5.3
44Florida State3-31-26.1-5.9
50SMU4-12-17.7-4.3
53Virginia Tech4-21-27.1-4.9
59Virginia4-22-16.6-5.4
72Syracuse2-30-34.7-7.3
79California3-32-15.4-6.6
84Georgia Tech2-31-14.1-7.9
91NC State3-31-25.4-6.6
110Boston College2-30-23.3-8.7
112Stanford2-41-34.2-7.8

This week's picks and rankings

Every week's top 25, game of the week and picks are in the weekly breakdown. Latest: Week 7 college football picks and power rankings: the model's case for LSU.

How the model works: each team starts from a preseason rating (last season, returning production, roster talent), and every game moves it using the final margin and play-by-play efficiency, adjusted for opponents. Projections simulate the rest of the season 10,000 times. More on the method. Data from CollegeFootballData.com.