College Football Power Rankings · Big 12

Arizona State Sun Devils

Arizona State is No. 90 of 138 in the model after week 6 (3-2, 1-1 in conference play). Its projected final record is 4.9-7.1, with a 0% chance to win out and a 0% chance to make the playoff.

Vegas disagrees: the model rates Arizona State about 8 points lower than the betting market does (Vegas rank: No. 41, model: No. 90). When the model and the line have been 6+ points apart, the line has been closer 62% of the time.

Updated · See Arizona State in the full rankings

2026 at a glance

  • #90in the model (▼13 from last week)
  • 4.9-7.1projected final record
  • −3.9points vs. an average FBS team, neutral field
  • 0%chance to make the playoff

Scouting report: Arizona State's best unit is its run defense (No. 57 in FBS); its weakest is its rush offense (No. 82). Overall, the offense ranks No. 76 and the defense No. 76, adjusted for opponents. These ranks rest on 5 games, so expect them to move week to week.

Résumé: No. 58, by wins above what a typical top-25 team would expect against Arizona State's schedule. That measures what the record is worth; the power rank (No. 90) measures how good the team is.

Deserved wins: playing the way it has, Arizona State would usually have won 2.2 games; it has won 3.

Postseason odds: 0% to win the Big 12, 0% to make the 12-team playoff, 0% to earn a first-round bye and 0% to win the national title. 30% to reach 6 wins. (Model estimates; how the playoff odds work.)

Rank by week: Wk 1: 30 → Wk 2: 36 → Wk 3: 55 → Wk 4: 60 → Wk 5: 77 → Wk 6: 90
Week 1: No. 30Week 2: No. 36Week 3: No. 55Week 4: No. 60Week 5: No. 77Week 6: No. 90

Rankings for weeks 1-6 were rebuilt after launch from games through each week; later weeks are published live.

Season stats

  • 32.6points per game
  • 27.8points allowed per game
  • 45%offensive success rate
  • 40%success rate allowed

Success rate: share of plays that keep an offense on schedule (half the yards needed on first down, 70% on second, all of it on third or fourth). Garbage time excluded.

Leaders

  • Passing: Cutter Boley, 1,229 yards, 12 TD, 3 INT
  • Rushing: Kyson Brown, 290 yards on 55 carries, 1 TD
  • Receiving: Reed Harris, 34 catches, 590 yards, 7 TD

Schedule and win odds

WeekOpponentResult or win chancePlayed like
1vs Morgan StateW 70-799% win
2at Texas A&ML 20-482% win
3vs KansasW 24-1725% win
5vs BaylorL 19-552% win
6vs Hawai'iW 30-1296% win
7at No. 11 Texas Tech9% to win
8vs Kansas State41% to win
9at No. 14 BYU11% to win
10vs Colorado55% to win
11at UCF26% to win
12vs Oklahoma State35% to win
13at No. 20 Arizona14% to win

Win chances come from the model's current ratings, including home field. Played like: how often a team wins a game it played the way it played this one, based on the box score. Rankings shown are the model's.

Big 12 in the model

#TeamRecordConf.Projected
9Utah5-02-010.1-1.9
11Texas Tech5-02-010.3-1.7
14BYU5-03-09.5-2.5
15Houston5-12-19.2-2.8
20Arizona5-12-18.7-3.3
30Baylor4-12-07.6-4.4
45Oklahoma State4-12-07.6-4.4
46TCU2-30-25.1-6.9
47UCF3-31-26.2-5.8
54Iowa State3-31-25.8-6.2
56Kansas State3-20-26.4-5.6
61Kansas2-30-24.8-7.2
68Cincinnati4-11-16.2-5.8
81West Virginia3-30-34.6-7.4
85Colorado2-30-24.2-7.8
90Arizona State3-21-14.9-7.1

This week's picks and rankings

Every week's top 25, game of the week and picks are in the weekly breakdown. Latest: Week 7 college football picks and power rankings: the model's case for LSU.

How the model works: each team starts from a preseason rating (last season, returning production, roster talent), and every game moves it using the final margin and play-by-play efficiency, adjusted for opponents. Projections simulate the rest of the season 10,000 times. More on the method. Data from CollegeFootballData.com.