TCU Horned Frogs
TCU is No. 46 of 138 in the model after week 6 (2-3, 0-2 in conference play). Its projected final record is 5.1-6.9, with a <1% chance to win out and a 0% chance to make the playoff.
2026 at a glance
- #46in the model (▼3 from last week)
- 5.1-6.9projected final record
- +4.2points vs. an average FBS team, neutral field
- 0%chance to make the playoff
Scouting report: TCU's best unit is its run defense (No. 9 in FBS); its weakest is its rush offense (No. 129). Overall, the offense ranks No. 90 and the defense No. 8, adjusted for opponents. These ranks rest on 5 games, so expect them to move week to week.
Résumé: No. 92, by wins above what a typical top-25 team would expect against TCU's schedule. That measures what the record is worth; the power rank (No. 46) measures how good the team is.
Deserved wins: playing the way it has, TCU would usually have won 3 games; it has won 2.
Postseason odds: 0% to win the Big 12, 0% to make the 12-team playoff, 0% to earn a first-round bye and 0% to win the national title. 38% to reach 6 wins. (Model estimates; how the playoff odds work.)
Season stats
- 25.4points per game
- 13.4points allowed per game
- 42%offensive success rate
- 37%success rate allowed
Leaders
- Passing: Jaden Craig, 1,400 yards, 8 TD, 4 INT
- Rushing: Jeremy Payne, 432 yards on 87 carries, 2 TD
- Receiving: Ed Small, 28 catches, 403 yards, 1 TD
Schedule and win odds
| Week | Opponent | Result or win chance | Played like |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | vs North Carolina | L 10-15 | 56% win |
| 2 | vs Grambling | W 63-7 | >99% win |
| 3 | vs Arkansas State | W 31-7 | 100% win |
| 4 | at UCF | L 13-21 | 14% win |
| 5 | vs No. 14 BYU | L 10-17 | 34% win |
| 7 | at Baylor | 34% to win | |
| 8 | vs West Virginia | 73% to win | |
| 9 | vs Kansas | 64% to win | |
| 10 | at No. 20 Arizona | 29% to win | |
| 11 | vs Kansas State | 61% to win | |
| 12 | vs No. 9 Utah | 29% to win | |
| 13 | at No. 11 Texas Tech | 21% to win |
Big 12 in the model
| # | Team | Record | Conf. | Projected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Utah | 5-0 | 2-0 | 10.1-1.9 |
| 11 | Texas Tech | 5-0 | 2-0 | 10.3-1.7 |
| 14 | BYU | 5-0 | 3-0 | 9.5-2.5 |
| 15 | Houston | 5-1 | 2-1 | 9.2-2.8 |
| 20 | Arizona | 5-1 | 2-1 | 8.7-3.3 |
| 30 | Baylor | 4-1 | 2-0 | 7.6-4.4 |
| 45 | Oklahoma State | 4-1 | 2-0 | 7.6-4.4 |
| 46 | TCU | 2-3 | 0-2 | 5.1-6.9 |
| 47 | UCF | 3-3 | 1-2 | 6.2-5.8 |
| 54 | Iowa State | 3-3 | 1-2 | 5.8-6.2 |
| 56 | Kansas State | 3-2 | 0-2 | 6.4-5.6 |
| 61 | Kansas | 2-3 | 0-2 | 4.8-7.2 |
| 68 | Cincinnati | 4-1 | 1-1 | 6.2-5.8 |
| 81 | West Virginia | 3-3 | 0-3 | 4.6-7.4 |
| 85 | Colorado | 2-3 | 0-2 | 4.2-7.8 |
| 90 | Arizona State | 3-2 | 1-1 | 4.9-7.1 |
This week's picks and rankings
Every week's top 25, game of the week and picks are in the weekly breakdown. Latest: Week 7 college football picks and power rankings: the model's case for LSU.