College Football Power Rankings · Big 12

UCF Knights

UCF is No. 47 of 138 in the model after week 6 (3-3, 1-2 in conference play). Its projected final record is 6.2-5.8, with a 3% chance to win out and a <1% chance to make the playoff.

Vegas disagrees: the model rates UCF about 6 points higher than the betting market does (Vegas rank: No. 79, model: No. 47). When the model and the line have been 6+ points apart, the line has been closer 62% of the time.

Updated · See UCF in the full rankings

2026 at a glance

  • #47in the model (▲1 from last week)
  • 6.2-5.8projected final record
  • +3.9points vs. an average FBS team, neutral field
  • <1%chance to make the playoff

Scouting report: UCF's best unit is its run defense (No. 16 in FBS); its weakest is its rush offense (No. 94). Overall, the offense ranks No. 61 and the defense No. 18, adjusted for opponents. These ranks rest on 6 games, so expect them to move week to week.

Résumé: No. 63, by wins above what a typical top-25 team would expect against UCF's schedule. That measures what the record is worth; the power rank (No. 47) measures how good the team is.

Deserved wins: playing the way it has, UCF would usually have won 3 games; it has won 3.

Postseason odds: <1% to win the Big 12, <1% to make the 12-team playoff, 0% to earn a first-round bye and 0% to win the national title. 70% to reach 6 wins. (Model estimates; how the playoff odds work.)

Rank by week: Wk 1: 75 → Wk 2: 56 → Wk 3: 52 → Wk 4: 52 → Wk 5: 48 → Wk 6: 47
Week 1: No. 75Week 2: No. 56Week 3: No. 52Week 4: No. 52Week 5: No. 48Week 6: No. 47

Rankings for weeks 1-6 were rebuilt after launch from games through each week; later weeks are published live.

Season stats

  • 31.7points per game
  • 21.7points allowed per game
  • 40%offensive success rate
  • 41%success rate allowed

Success rate: share of plays that keep an offense on schedule (half the yards needed on first down, 70% on second, all of it on third or fourth). Garbage time excluded.

Leaders

  • Passing: Keyone Jenkins, 806 yards, 8 TD, 3 INT
  • Rushing: Duke Watson, 483 yards on 70 carries, 3 TD
  • Receiving: Joshua Derry, 28 catches, 304 yards, 2 TD

Schedule and win odds

WeekOpponentResult or win chancePlayed like
1vs Bethune-CookmanW 73-698% win
2at PittsburghL 7-120% win
3vs Georgia StateW 44-3098% win
4vs TCUW 21-1386% win
5at No. 15 HoustonL 17-276% win
6at Oklahoma StateL 28-4212% win
8vs No. 14 BYU34% to win
9vs Baylor46% to win
10at Kansas50% to win
11vs Arizona State74% to win
12vs Iowa State59% to win
13at Colorado61% to win

Win chances come from the model's current ratings, including home field. Played like: how often a team wins a game it played the way it played this one, based on the box score. Rankings shown are the model's.

Big 12 in the model

#TeamRecordConf.Projected
9Utah5-02-010.1-1.9
11Texas Tech5-02-010.3-1.7
14BYU5-03-09.5-2.5
15Houston5-12-19.2-2.8
20Arizona5-12-18.7-3.3
30Baylor4-12-07.6-4.4
45Oklahoma State4-12-07.6-4.4
46TCU2-30-25.1-6.9
47UCF3-31-26.2-5.8
54Iowa State3-31-25.8-6.2
56Kansas State3-20-26.4-5.6
61Kansas2-30-24.8-7.2
68Cincinnati4-11-16.2-5.8
81West Virginia3-30-34.6-7.4
85Colorado2-30-24.2-7.8
90Arizona State3-21-14.9-7.1

This week's picks and rankings

Every week's top 25, game of the week and picks are in the weekly breakdown. Latest: Week 7 college football picks and power rankings: the model's case for LSU.

How the model works: each team starts from a preseason rating (last season, returning production, roster talent), and every game moves it using the final margin and play-by-play efficiency, adjusted for opponents. Projections simulate the rest of the season 10,000 times. More on the method. Data from CollegeFootballData.com.