Hawai'i Rainbow Warriors
Hawai'i is No. 132 of 138 in the model after week 6 (1-5, 0-3 in conference play). Its projected final record is 3.4-8.6, with a <1% chance to win out and a 0% chance to make the playoff.
2026 at a glance
- #132in the model (▼7 from last week)
- 3.4-8.6projected final record
- −14.7points vs. an average FBS team, neutral field
- 0%chance to make the playoff
Scouting report: Hawai'i's best unit is its pass offense (No. 107 in FBS); its weakest is its run defense (No. 130). Overall, the offense ranks No. 121 and the defense No. 132, adjusted for opponents. These ranks rest on 6 games, so expect them to move week to week.
Résumé: No. 137, by wins above what a typical top-25 team would expect against Hawai'i's schedule. That measures what the record is worth; the power rank (No. 132) measures how good the team is.
Deserved wins: playing the way it has, Hawai'i would usually have won 1.1 games; it has won 1.
Postseason odds: 0% to win the Mountain West, 0% to make the 12-team playoff, 0% to earn a first-round bye and 0% to win the national title. 4% to reach 6 wins. (Model estimates; how the playoff odds work.)
Season stats
- 16.7points per game
- 25.7points allowed per game
- 39%offensive success rate
- 46%success rate allowed
Leaders
- Passing: Micah Alejado, 1,613 yards, 5 TD, 4 INT
- Rushing: Devon Rice, 304 yards on 65 carries, 3 TD
- Receiving: Kainoa Carvalho, 29 catches, 335 yards, 0 TD
Schedule and win odds
| Week | Opponent | Result or win chance | Played like |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | at Stanford | L 27-37 | 1% win |
| 1 | vs UNLV | L 6-21 | 4% win |
| 2 | vs New Mexico State | W 29-19 | 94% win |
| 4 | at Wyoming | L 10-27 | 1% win |
| 5 | vs San José State | L 16-20 | 3% win |
| 6 | at Arizona State | L 12-30 | 4% win |
| 7 | vs New Mexico | 10% to win | |
| 8 | at Northern Illinois | 57% to win | |
| 10 | at UTEP | 49% to win | |
| 11 | vs North Dakota State | 21% to win | |
| 12 | at Nevada | 30% to win | |
| 13 | vs Sacramento State | 78% to win |
Mountain West in the model
| # | Team | Record | Conf. | Projected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 | New Mexico | 4-1 | 1-0 | 9.8-2.2 |
| 63 | North Dakota State | 5-1 | 2-1 | 9.4-2.6 |
| 64 | UNLV | 4-2 | 2-0 | 8.0-4.0 |
| 83 | Air Force | 4-1 | 2-1 | 7.9-4.1 |
| 111 | Nevada | 2-3 | 1-1 | 4.7-7.3 |
| 116 | San José State | 3-3 | 1-1 | 5.9-7.1 |
| 130 | Wyoming | 3-3 | 2-1 | 5.0-7.0 |
| 132 | Hawai'i | 1-5 | 0-3 | 3.4-8.6 |
| 133 | UTEP | 1-5 | 0-2 | 3.1-8.9 |
| 135 | Northern Illinois | 0-5 | 0-1 | 1.9-10.1 |
This week's picks and rankings
Every week's top 25, game of the week and picks are in the weekly breakdown. Latest: Week 7 college football picks and power rankings: the model's case for LSU.