Cincinnati Bearcats
Cincinnati is No. 68 of 138 in the model after week 6 (4-1, 1-1 in conference play). Its projected final record is 6.2-5.8, with a <1% chance to win out and a <1% chance to make the playoff.
2026 at a glance
- #68in the model (▼2 from last week)
- 6.2-5.8projected final record
- −0.4points vs. an average FBS team, neutral field
- <1%chance to make the playoff
Scouting report: Cincinnati's best unit is its rush offense (No. 34 in FBS); its weakest is its run defense (No. 125). Overall, the offense ranks No. 35 and the defense No. 99, adjusted for opponents. These ranks rest on 5 games, so expect them to move week to week.
Résumé: No. 36, by wins above what a typical top-25 team would expect against Cincinnati's schedule. That measures what the record is worth; the power rank (No. 68) measures how good the team is.
Deserved wins: playing the way it has, Cincinnati would usually have won 3.5 games; it has won 4.
Postseason odds: <1% to win the Big 12, <1% to make the 12-team playoff, 0% to earn a first-round bye and 0% to win the national title. 70% to reach 6 wins. (Model estimates; how the playoff odds work.)
Season stats
- 33.8points per game
- 23.2points allowed per game
- 46%offensive success rate
- 45%success rate allowed
Leaders
- Passing: JC French, 949 yards, 6 TD, 0 INT
- Rushing: Gi'Bran Payne, 392 yards on 62 carries, 2 TD
- Receiving: JaVonnie Gibson, 18 catches, 267 yards, 3 TD
Schedule and win odds
| Week | Opponent | Result or win chance | Played like |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | vs Boston College | W 34-15 | 99% win |
| 2 | vs Western Carolina | W 62-10 | >99% win |
| 3 | vs Miami (OH) | W 35-31 | 60% win |
| 4 | vs Kansas State | W 31-26 | 94% win |
| 5 | at No. 20 Arizona | L 7-34 | 1% win |
| 7 | at West Virginia | 49% to win | |
| 8 | vs No. 11 Texas Tech | 22% to win | |
| 9 | vs No. 9 Utah | 20% to win | |
| 10 | at No. 15 Houston | 16% to win | |
| 11 | at Iowa State | 35% to win | |
| 12 | vs Colorado | 64% to win | |
| 13 | at No. 14 BYU | 16% to win |
Big 12 in the model
| # | Team | Record | Conf. | Projected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Utah | 5-0 | 2-0 | 10.1-1.9 |
| 11 | Texas Tech | 5-0 | 2-0 | 10.3-1.7 |
| 14 | BYU | 5-0 | 3-0 | 9.5-2.5 |
| 15 | Houston | 5-1 | 2-1 | 9.2-2.8 |
| 20 | Arizona | 5-1 | 2-1 | 8.7-3.3 |
| 30 | Baylor | 4-1 | 2-0 | 7.6-4.4 |
| 45 | Oklahoma State | 4-1 | 2-0 | 7.6-4.4 |
| 46 | TCU | 2-3 | 0-2 | 5.1-6.9 |
| 47 | UCF | 3-3 | 1-2 | 6.2-5.8 |
| 54 | Iowa State | 3-3 | 1-2 | 5.8-6.2 |
| 56 | Kansas State | 3-2 | 0-2 | 6.4-5.6 |
| 61 | Kansas | 2-3 | 0-2 | 4.8-7.2 |
| 68 | Cincinnati | 4-1 | 1-1 | 6.2-5.8 |
| 81 | West Virginia | 3-3 | 0-3 | 4.6-7.4 |
| 85 | Colorado | 2-3 | 0-2 | 4.2-7.8 |
| 90 | Arizona State | 3-2 | 1-1 | 4.9-7.1 |
This week's picks and rankings
Every week's top 25, game of the week and picks are in the weekly breakdown. Latest: Week 7 college football picks and power rankings: the model's case for LSU.