Texas A&M Aggies

Texas A&M is No. 31 of 138 in the model after week 6 (3-3, 1-3 in conference play). Its projected final record is 5.7-6.3, with a 1% chance to win out and a <1% chance to make the playoff.

Updated · See Texas A&M in the full rankings

2026 at a glance

  • #31in the model (▼16 from last week)
  • 5.7-6.3projected final record
  • +8.1points vs. an average FBS team, neutral field
  • <1%chance to make the playoff

Scouting report: Texas A&M's best unit is its run defense (No. 31 in FBS); its weakest is its pass defense (No. 115). Overall, the offense ranks No. 95 and the defense No. 79, adjusted for opponents. These ranks rest on 6 games, so expect them to move week to week.

Résumé: No. 61, by wins above what a typical top-25 team would expect against Texas A&M's schedule. That measures what the record is worth; the power rank (No. 31) measures how good the team is.

Deserved wins: playing the way it has, Texas A&M would usually have won 3.1 games; it has won 3.

Postseason odds: 0% to win the SEC, <1% to make the 12-team playoff, 0% to earn a first-round bye and 0% to win the national title. 56% to reach 6 wins. (Model estimates; how the playoff odds work.)

Rank by week: Wk 1: 4 → Wk 2: 3 → Wk 3: 9 → Wk 4: 17 → Wk 5: 15 → Wk 6: 31
Week 1: No. 4Week 2: No. 3Week 3: No. 9Week 4: No. 17Week 5: No. 15Week 6: No. 31

Rankings for weeks 1-6 were rebuilt after launch from games through each week; later weeks are published live.

Season stats

  • 27.5points per game
  • 20points allowed per game
  • 41%offensive success rate
  • 40%success rate allowed

Success rate: share of plays that keep an offense on schedule (half the yards needed on first down, 70% on second, all of it on third or fourth). Garbage time excluded.

Leaders

  • Passing: Marcel Reed, 1,095 yards, 6 TD, 6 INT
  • Rushing: Rueben Owens, 304 yards on 74 carries, 1 TD
  • Receiving: Isaiah Horton, 19 catches, 270 yards, 3 TD

Schedule and win odds

WeekOpponentResult or win chancePlayed like
1vs Missouri StateW 50-099% win
2vs Arizona StateW 48-2098% win
3vs KentuckyL 21-31<1% win
4at No. 8 LSUL 6-351% win
5vs ArkansasW 34-798% win
6at No. 12 MissouriL 6-2713% win
7vs The Citadel99% to win
8at No. 1 Alabama9% to win
10at South Carolina44% to win
11vs No. 17 Tennessee47% to win
12at Oklahoma41% to win
13vs No. 7 Texas35% to win

Win chances come from the model's current ratings, including home field. Played like: how often a team wins a game it played the way it played this one, based on the box score. Rankings shown are the model's.

SEC in the model

#TeamRecordConf.Projected
1Alabama5-13-110.2-1.8
3Georgia6-04-010.9-1.1
7Texas4-11-18.7-3.3
8LSU4-21-27.8-4.2
12Missouri5-12-18.5-3.5
17Tennessee5-12-18.1-3.9
18Ole Miss4-12-17.8-4.2
19Mississippi State4-12-18.1-3.9
26Oklahoma3-21-16.4-5.6
27Kentucky5-13-18.1-3.9
33South Carolina3-31-35.9-6.1
37Florida4-22-26.6-5.4
42Auburn3-21-25.8-6.2
82Vanderbilt3-30-34.4-7.6
88Arkansas2-40-33.3-8.7

This week's picks and rankings

Every week's top 25, game of the week and picks are in the weekly breakdown. Latest: Week 7 college football picks and power rankings: the model's case for LSU.

How the model works: each team starts from a preseason rating (last season, returning production, roster talent), and every game moves it using the final margin and play-by-play efficiency, adjusted for opponents. Projections simulate the rest of the season 10,000 times. More on the method. Data from CollegeFootballData.com.