College Football Power Rankings · Big 12

Baylor Bears

Baylor is No. 30 of 138 in the model after week 6 (4-1, 2-0 in conference play). Its projected final record is 7.6-4.4, with a 1% chance to win out and a 4% chance to make the playoff.

Updated · See Baylor in the full rankings

2026 at a glance

  • #30in the model (– from last week)
  • 7.6-4.4projected final record
  • +8.3points vs. an average FBS team, neutral field
  • 4%chance to make the playoff

Scouting report: Baylor's best unit is its run defense (No. 11 in FBS); its weakest is its pass defense (No. 62). Overall, the offense ranks No. 40 and the defense No. 30, adjusted for opponents. These ranks rest on 5 games, so expect them to move week to week.

Résumé: No. 40, by wins above what a typical top-25 team would expect against Baylor's schedule. That measures what the record is worth; the power rank (No. 30) measures how good the team is.

Deserved wins: playing the way it has, Baylor would usually have won 4.4 games; it has won 4.

Postseason odds: 4% to win the Big 12, 4% to make the 12-team playoff, <1% to earn a first-round bye and 0% to win the national title. 93% to reach 6 wins. (Model estimates; how the playoff odds work.)

Rank by week: Wk 1: 60 → Wk 2: 53 → Wk 3: 41 → Wk 4: 41 → Wk 5: 30 → Wk 6: 30
Week 1: No. 60Week 2: No. 53Week 3: No. 41Week 4: No. 41Week 5: No. 30Week 6: No. 30

Rankings for weeks 1-6 were rebuilt after launch from games through each week; later weeks are published live.

Season stats

  • 34.8points per game
  • 14.2points allowed per game
  • 40%offensive success rate
  • 35%success rate allowed

Success rate: share of plays that keep an offense on schedule (half the yards needed on first down, 70% on second, all of it on third or fourth). Garbage time excluded.

Leaders

  • Passing: D.J. Lagway, 860 yards, 8 TD, 2 INT
  • Rushing: Dawson Pendergrass, 317 yards on 80 carries, 1 TD
  • Receiving: Gavin Freeman, 42 catches, 479 yards, 2 TD

Schedule and win odds

WeekOpponentResult or win chancePlayed like
1vs AuburnL 16-1768% win
2vs Prairie View A&MW 44-396% win
3vs Louisiana TechW 36-1995% win
4vs ColoradoW 23-1379% win
5at Arizona StateW 55-1999% win
7vs TCU66% to win
8at Kansas61% to win
9at UCF54% to win
10vs Iowa State69% to win
11at No. 14 BYU32% to win
12vs No. 11 Texas Tech41% to win
13at No. 15 Houston32% to win

Win chances come from the model's current ratings, including home field. Played like: how often a team wins a game it played the way it played this one, based on the box score. Rankings shown are the model's.

Big 12 in the model

#TeamRecordConf.Projected
9Utah5-02-010.1-1.9
11Texas Tech5-02-010.3-1.7
14BYU5-03-09.5-2.5
15Houston5-12-19.2-2.8
20Arizona5-12-18.7-3.3
30Baylor4-12-07.6-4.4
45Oklahoma State4-12-07.6-4.4
46TCU2-30-25.1-6.9
47UCF3-31-26.2-5.8
54Iowa State3-31-25.8-6.2
56Kansas State3-20-26.4-5.6
61Kansas2-30-24.8-7.2
68Cincinnati4-11-16.2-5.8
81West Virginia3-30-34.6-7.4
85Colorado2-30-24.2-7.8
90Arizona State3-21-14.9-7.1

This week's picks and rankings

Every week's top 25, game of the week and picks are in the weekly breakdown. Latest: Week 7 college football picks and power rankings: the model's case for LSU.

How the model works: each team starts from a preseason rating (last season, returning production, roster talent), and every game moves it using the final margin and play-by-play efficiency, adjusted for opponents. Projections simulate the rest of the season 10,000 times. More on the method. Data from CollegeFootballData.com.