Utah Utes
Utah is No. 9 of 138 in the model after week 6 (5-0, 2-0 in conference play). Its projected final record is 10.1-1.9, with a 12% chance to win out and a 51% chance to make the playoff. The AP poll has Utah at No. 11.
2026 at a glance
- #9in the model (– from last week)
- 10.1-1.9projected final record
- +15.7points vs. an average FBS team, neutral field
- 51%chance to make the playoff
Scouting report: Utah's best unit is its rush offense (No. 14 in FBS); its weakest is its pass defense (No. 60). Overall, the offense ranks No. 16 and the defense No. 36, adjusted for opponents. These ranks rest on 5 games, so expect them to move week to week.
Résumé: No. 16, by wins above what a typical top-25 team would expect against Utah's schedule. That measures what the record is worth; the power rank (No. 9) measures how good the team is.
Deserved wins: playing the way it has, Utah would usually have won 4.9 games; it has won 5.
Postseason odds: 28% to win the Big 12, 51% to make the 12-team playoff, 12% to earn a first-round bye and 2% to win the national title. >99% to reach 6 wins. (Model estimates; how the playoff odds work.)
Season stats
- 42.8points per game
- 13points allowed per game
- 53%offensive success rate
- 34%success rate allowed
Leaders
- Passing: Devon Dampier, 1,134 yards, 12 TD, 2 INT
- Rushing: Wayshawn Parker, 499 yards on 66 carries, 7 TD
- Receiving: Braden Pegan, 24 catches, 336 yards, 4 TD
Schedule and win odds
| Week | Opponent | Result or win chance | Played like |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | vs Idaho | W 66-14 | >99% win |
| 2 | vs Arkansas | W 43-10 | 99% win |
| 3 | vs Utah State | W 33-0 | 99% win |
| 4 | at Iowa State | W 31-17 | 100% win |
| 6 | vs Kansas | W 41-24 | 93% win |
| 7 | at Colorado | 85% to win | |
| 8 | vs No. 15 Houston | 63% to win | |
| 9 | at Cincinnati | 80% to win | |
| 10 | vs No. 14 BYU | 63% to win | |
| 11 | at No. 20 Arizona | 56% to win | |
| 12 | at TCU | 71% to win | |
| 13 | vs West Virginia | 91% to win |
Big 12 in the model
| # | Team | Record | Conf. | Projected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Utah | 5-0 | 2-0 | 10.1-1.9 |
| 11 | Texas Tech | 5-0 | 2-0 | 10.3-1.7 |
| 14 | BYU | 5-0 | 3-0 | 9.5-2.5 |
| 15 | Houston | 5-1 | 2-1 | 9.2-2.8 |
| 20 | Arizona | 5-1 | 2-1 | 8.7-3.3 |
| 30 | Baylor | 4-1 | 2-0 | 7.6-4.4 |
| 45 | Oklahoma State | 4-1 | 2-0 | 7.6-4.4 |
| 46 | TCU | 2-3 | 0-2 | 5.1-6.9 |
| 47 | UCF | 3-3 | 1-2 | 6.2-5.8 |
| 54 | Iowa State | 3-3 | 1-2 | 5.8-6.2 |
| 56 | Kansas State | 3-2 | 0-2 | 6.4-5.6 |
| 61 | Kansas | 2-3 | 0-2 | 4.8-7.2 |
| 68 | Cincinnati | 4-1 | 1-1 | 6.2-5.8 |
| 81 | West Virginia | 3-3 | 0-3 | 4.6-7.4 |
| 85 | Colorado | 2-3 | 0-2 | 4.2-7.8 |
| 90 | Arizona State | 3-2 | 1-1 | 4.9-7.1 |
This week's picks and rankings
Every week's top 25, game of the week and picks are in the weekly breakdown. Latest: Week 7 college football picks and power rankings: the model's case for LSU.