Texas Tech Red Raiders
Texas Tech is No. 11 of 138 in the model after week 6 (5-0, 2-0 in conference play). Its projected final record is 10.3-1.7, with a 16% chance to win out and a 51% chance to make the playoff. The AP poll has Texas Tech at No. 10.
2026 at a glance
- #11in the model (– from last week)
- 10.3-1.7projected final record
- +14.7points vs. an average FBS team, neutral field
- 51%chance to make the playoff
Scouting report: Texas Tech's best unit is its run defense (No. 25 in FBS); its weakest is its pass offense (No. 48). Overall, the offense ranks No. 39 and the defense No. 22, adjusted for opponents. These ranks rest on 5 games, so expect them to move week to week.
Résumé: No. 7, by wins above what a typical top-25 team would expect against Texas Tech's schedule. That measures what the record is worth; the power rank (No. 11) measures how good the team is.
Deserved wins: playing the way it has, Texas Tech would usually have won 4.2 games; it has won 5.
Postseason odds: 28% to win the Big 12, 51% to make the 12-team playoff, 11% to earn a first-round bye and 2% to win the national title. >99% to reach 6 wins. (Model estimates; how the playoff odds work.)
Season stats
- 34.8points per game
- 16.2points allowed per game
- 47%offensive success rate
- 37%success rate allowed
Leaders
- Passing: Will Hammond, 1,102 yards, 5 TD, 5 INT
- Rushing: J'Koby Williams, 373 yards on 63 carries, 3 TD
- Receiving: Kenny Johnson, 17 catches, 298 yards, 1 TD
Schedule and win odds
| Week | Opponent | Result or win chance | Played like |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | vs Abilene Christian | W 33-10 | 99% win |
| 2 | at Oregon State | W 35-24 | 100% win |
| 3 | vs No. 15 Houston | W 28-26 | 56% win |
| 4 | vs Sam Houston | W 49-14 | >99% win |
| 5 | at Colorado | W 29-7 | 65% win |
| 7 | vs Arizona State | 91% to win | |
| 8 | at Cincinnati | 78% to win | |
| 9 | vs No. 20 Arizona | 66% to win | |
| 10 | vs West Virginia | 90% to win | |
| 11 | at Oklahoma State | 67% to win | |
| 12 | at Baylor | 59% to win | |
| 13 | vs TCU | 79% to win |
Big 12 in the model
| # | Team | Record | Conf. | Projected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Utah | 5-0 | 2-0 | 10.1-1.9 |
| 11 | Texas Tech | 5-0 | 2-0 | 10.3-1.7 |
| 14 | BYU | 5-0 | 3-0 | 9.5-2.5 |
| 15 | Houston | 5-1 | 2-1 | 9.2-2.8 |
| 20 | Arizona | 5-1 | 2-1 | 8.7-3.3 |
| 30 | Baylor | 4-1 | 2-0 | 7.6-4.4 |
| 45 | Oklahoma State | 4-1 | 2-0 | 7.6-4.4 |
| 46 | TCU | 2-3 | 0-2 | 5.1-6.9 |
| 47 | UCF | 3-3 | 1-2 | 6.2-5.8 |
| 54 | Iowa State | 3-3 | 1-2 | 5.8-6.2 |
| 56 | Kansas State | 3-2 | 0-2 | 6.4-5.6 |
| 61 | Kansas | 2-3 | 0-2 | 4.8-7.2 |
| 68 | Cincinnati | 4-1 | 1-1 | 6.2-5.8 |
| 81 | West Virginia | 3-3 | 0-3 | 4.6-7.4 |
| 85 | Colorado | 2-3 | 0-2 | 4.2-7.8 |
| 90 | Arizona State | 3-2 | 1-1 | 4.9-7.1 |
This week's picks and rankings
Every week's top 25, game of the week and picks are in the weekly breakdown. Latest: Week 7 college football picks and power rankings: the model's case for LSU.