Utah State Aggies
Utah State is No. 113 of 138 in the model after week 6 (2-4, 1-1 in conference play). Its projected final record is 3.5-7.5, with a <1% chance to win out and a 0% chance to make the playoff.
2026 at a glance
- #113in the model (▼7 from last week)
- 3.5-7.5projected final record
- −9.3points vs. an average FBS team, neutral field
- 0%chance to make the playoff
Scouting report: Utah State's best unit is its run defense (No. 27 in FBS); its weakest is its pass offense (No. 129). Overall, the offense ranks No. 135 and the defense No. 44, adjusted for opponents. These ranks rest on 6 games, so expect them to move week to week.
Résumé: No. 113, by wins above what a typical top-25 team would expect against Utah State's schedule. That measures what the record is worth; the power rank (No. 113) measures how good the team is.
Deserved wins: playing the way it has, Utah State would usually have won 2.1 games; it has won 2.
Postseason odds: <1% to win the Pac-12, 0% to make the 12-team playoff, 0% to earn a first-round bye and 0% to win the national title. 4% to reach 6 wins. (Model estimates; how the playoff odds work.)
Season stats
- 14.5points per game
- 23.5points allowed per game
- 35%offensive success rate
- 39%success rate allowed
Leaders
- Passing: Grady Brosterhous, 914 yards, 7 TD, 6 INT
- Rushing: Javen Jacobs, 393 yards on 70 carries, 2 TD
- Receiving: Eli Wood, 36 catches, 472 yards, 5 TD
Schedule and win odds
| Week | Opponent | Result or win chance | Played like |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | vs Idaho State | L 17-29 | 25% win |
| 2 | at Washington | L 14-16 | 14% win |
| 3 | at No. 9 Utah | L 0-33 | 1% win |
| 4 | vs Troy | W 21-10 | 99% win |
| 5 | at No. 23 Boise State | L 18-37 | 1% win |
| 6 | vs Washington State | W 17-16 | 69% win |
| 8 | at Texas State | 23% to win | |
| 9 | vs Colorado State | 53% to win | |
| 10 | vs Fresno State | 30% to win | |
| 11 | at San Diego State | 38% to win | |
| 12 | at Oregon State | 11% to win |
Pac-12 in the model
| # | Team | Record | Conf. | Projected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23 | Boise State | 5-1 | 2-0 | 9.0-2.0 |
| 34 | Oregon State | 4-2 | 2-0 | 7.5-3.5 |
| 57 | Fresno State | 4-2 | 1-1 | 7.1-3.9 |
| 66 | Texas State | 2-3 | 0-1 | 5.5-5.5 |
| 101 | San Diego State | 2-4 | 1-1 | 4.1-6.9 |
| 104 | Colorado State | 2-3 | 0-1 | 3.9-7.1 |
| 109 | Washington State | 1-5 | 0-2 | 2.5-8.5 |
| 113 | Utah State | 2-4 | 1-1 | 3.5-7.5 |
This week's picks and rankings
Every week's top 25, game of the week and picks are in the weekly breakdown. Latest: Week 7 college football picks and power rankings: the model's case for LSU.