Sam Houston Bearkats
Sam Houston is No. 123 of 138 in the model after week 6 (1-4, 0-1 in conference play). Its projected final record is 3.6-8.4, with a 1% chance to win out and a 0% chance to make the playoff.
2026 at a glance
- #123in the model (▼3 from last week)
- 3.6-8.4projected final record
- −11.1points vs. an average FBS team, neutral field
- 0%chance to make the playoff
Scouting report: Sam Houston's best unit is its pass defense (No. 16 in FBS); its weakest is its run defense (No. 124). Overall, the offense ranks No. 85 and the defense No. 66, adjusted for opponents. These ranks rest on 6 games, so expect them to move week to week.
Résumé: No. 119, by wins above what a typical top-25 team would expect against Sam Houston's schedule. That measures what the record is worth; the power rank (No. 123) measures how good the team is.
Deserved wins: playing the way it has, Sam Houston would usually have won 1.6 games; it has won 1.
Postseason odds: <1% to win the Conference USA, 0% to make the 12-team playoff, 0% to earn a first-round bye and 0% to win the national title. 7% to reach 6 wins. (Model estimates; how the playoff odds work.)
Season stats
- 19.5points per game
- 24.5points allowed per game
- 39%offensive success rate
- 40%success rate allowed
Leaders
- Passing: Landyn Locke, 1,418 yards, 11 TD, 4 INT
- Rushing: Alton McCaskill, 211 yards on 53 carries, 1 TD
- Receiving: Chris Reed, 17 catches, 289 yards, 3 TD
Schedule and win odds
| Week | Opponent | Result or win chance | Played like |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | at Troy | L 21-24 | 0% win |
| 2 | vs Tulsa | L 17-23 | 64% win |
| 3 | vs Nicholls | W 59-0 | 99% win |
| 4 | at No. 11 Texas Tech | L 14-49 | <1% win |
| 6 | at Liberty | L 3-35 | 1% win |
| 7 | vs Western Kentucky | L 3-16 | 15% win |
| 8 | vs New Mexico State | 55% to win | |
| 9 | at Missouri State | 47% to win | |
| 10 | at Jacksonville State | 29% to win | |
| 11 | vs Kennesaw State | 49% to win | |
| 12 | vs Middle Tennessee | 56% to win | |
| 13 | at Florida International | 25% to win |
Conference USA in the model
| # | Team | Record | Conf. | Projected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 49 | Liberty | 5-1 | 2-0 | 9.7-2.3 |
| 80 | Florida International | 3-2 | 1-0 | 6.7-5.3 |
| 95 | Jacksonville State | 4-2 | 2-0 | 8.2-3.8 |
| 105 | Kennesaw State | 1-4 | 0-1 | 3.9-8.1 |
| 117 | New Mexico State | 2-4 | 1-1 | 4.6-7.4 |
| 118 | Western Kentucky | 2-4 | 1-1 | 5.1-6.9 |
| 120 | Delaware | 2-3 | 0-1 | 4.6-7.4 |
| 121 | Middle Tennessee | 2-3 | 0-1 | 5.4-6.6 |
| 123 | Sam Houston | 1-4 | 0-1 | 3.6-8.4 |
| 127 | Missouri State | 1-4 | 0-1 | 4.1-7.9 |
This week's picks and rankings
Every week's top 25, game of the week and picks are in the weekly breakdown. Latest: Week 7 college football picks and power rankings: the model's case for LSU.