LSU Tigers
LSU is No. 8 of 138 in the model after week 6 (4-2, 1-2 in conference play). Its projected final record is 7.8-4.2, with a 6% chance to win out and a 34% chance to make the playoff. The AP poll has LSU at No. 22.
2026 at a glance
- #8in the model (▼1 from last week)
- 7.8-4.2projected final record
- +16.8points vs. an average FBS team, neutral field
- 34%chance to make the playoff
Scouting report: LSU's best unit is its pass defense (No. 3 in FBS); its weakest is its rush offense (No. 70). Overall, the offense ranks No. 30 and the defense No. 1, adjusted for opponents. These ranks rest on 6 games, so expect them to move week to week.
Résumé: No. 38, by wins above what a typical top-25 team would expect against LSU's schedule. That measures what the record is worth; the power rank (No. 8) measures how good the team is.
Deserved wins: playing the way it has, LSU would usually have won 5.1 games; it has won 4.
Postseason odds: 1% to win the SEC, 34% to make the 12-team playoff, 3% to earn a first-round bye and 2% to win the national title. 97% to reach 6 wins. (Model estimates; how the playoff odds work.)
Season stats
- 42points per game
- 18.5points allowed per game
- 50%offensive success rate
- 31%success rate allowed
Leaders
- Passing: Sam Leavitt, 1,495 yards, 10 TD, 8 INT
- Rushing: Dilin Jones, 483 yards on 110 carries, 5 TD
- Receiving: Winston Watkins, 29 catches, 416 yards, 2 TD
Schedule and win odds
| Week | Opponent | Result or win chance | Played like |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | vs Clemson | W 51-10 | 99% win |
| 2 | vs Louisiana Tech | W 45-14 | 95% win |
| 3 | at No. 18 Ole Miss | L 24-32 | 85% win |
| 4 | vs Texas A&M | W 35-6 | 99% win |
| 5 | vs McNeese | W 63-14 | 99% win |
| 6 | at Kentucky | L 34-35 | 32% win |
| 7 | vs No. 19 Mississippi State | 71% to win | |
| 8 | at Auburn | 71% to win | |
| 10 | vs No. 1 Alabama | 33% to win | |
| 11 | vs No. 7 Texas | 56% to win | |
| 12 | at No. 17 Tennessee | 55% to win | |
| 13 | at Arkansas | 87% to win |
SEC in the model
| # | Team | Record | Conf. | Projected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Alabama | 5-1 | 3-1 | 10.2-1.8 |
| 3 | Georgia | 6-0 | 4-0 | 10.9-1.1 |
| 7 | Texas | 4-1 | 1-1 | 8.7-3.3 |
| 8 | LSU | 4-2 | 1-2 | 7.8-4.2 |
| 12 | Missouri | 5-1 | 2-1 | 8.5-3.5 |
| 17 | Tennessee | 5-1 | 2-1 | 8.1-3.9 |
| 18 | Ole Miss | 4-1 | 2-1 | 7.8-4.2 |
| 19 | Mississippi State | 4-1 | 2-1 | 8.1-3.9 |
| 26 | Oklahoma | 3-2 | 1-1 | 6.4-5.6 |
| 27 | Kentucky | 5-1 | 3-1 | 8.1-3.9 |
| 31 | Texas A&M | 3-3 | 1-3 | 5.7-6.3 |
| 33 | South Carolina | 3-3 | 1-3 | 5.9-6.1 |
| 37 | Florida | 4-2 | 2-2 | 6.6-5.4 |
| 42 | Auburn | 3-2 | 1-2 | 5.8-6.2 |
| 82 | Vanderbilt | 3-3 | 0-3 | 4.4-7.6 |
| 88 | Arkansas | 2-4 | 0-3 | 3.3-8.7 |
This week's picks and rankings
Every week's top 25, game of the week and picks are in the weekly breakdown. Latest: Week 7 college football picks and power rankings: the model's case for LSU.