Auburn Tigers

Auburn is No. 42 of 138 in the model after week 6 (3-2, 1-2 in conference play). Its projected final record is 5.8-6.2, with a <1% chance to win out and a <1% chance to make the playoff.

Updated · See Auburn in the full rankings

2026 at a glance

  • #42in the model (▼7 from last week)
  • 5.8-6.2projected final record
  • +5.2points vs. an average FBS team, neutral field
  • <1%chance to make the playoff

Scouting report: Auburn's best unit is its run defense (No. 38 in FBS); its weakest is its pass offense (No. 106). Overall, the offense ranks No. 86 and the defense No. 46, adjusted for opponents. These ranks rest on 5 games, so expect them to move week to week.

Résumé: No. 46, by wins above what a typical top-25 team would expect against Auburn's schedule. That measures what the record is worth; the power rank (No. 42) measures how good the team is.

Deserved wins: playing the way it has, Auburn would usually have won 2 games; it has won 3.

Postseason odds: 0% to win the SEC, <1% to make the 12-team playoff, 0% to earn a first-round bye and 0% to win the national title. 58% to reach 6 wins. (Model estimates; how the playoff odds work.)

Rank by week: Wk 1: 35 → Wk 2: 26 → Wk 3: 30 → Wk 4: 29 → Wk 5: 35 → Wk 6: 42
Week 1: No. 35Week 2: No. 26Week 3: No. 30Week 4: No. 29Week 5: No. 35Week 6: No. 42

Rankings for weeks 1-6 were rebuilt after launch from games through each week; later weeks are published live.

Season stats

  • 26.8points per game
  • 21.4points allowed per game
  • 42%offensive success rate
  • 39%success rate allowed

Success rate: share of plays that keep an offense on schedule (half the yards needed on first down, 70% on second, all of it on third or fourth). Garbage time excluded.

Leaders

  • Passing: Byrum Brown, 1,052 yards, 7 TD, 7 INT
  • Rushing: Byrum Brown, 344 yards on 81 carries, 4 TD
  • Receiving: Keshaun Singleton, 29 catches, 322 yards, 1 TD

Schedule and win odds

WeekOpponentResult or win chancePlayed like
1vs BaylorW 17-1632% win
2vs Southern MissW 43-899% win
3vs FloridaL 39-443% win
4vs VanderbiltW 21-1566% win
5at No. 17 TennesseeL 14-242% win
7at No. 3 Georgia11% to win
8vs No. 8 LSU29% to win
9at No. 18 Ole Miss30% to win
10vs Arkansas77% to win
11at No. 19 Mississippi State31% to win
12vs Samford98% to win
13at No. 1 Alabama7% to win

Win chances come from the model's current ratings, including home field. Played like: how often a team wins a game it played the way it played this one, based on the box score. Rankings shown are the model's.

SEC in the model

#TeamRecordConf.Projected
1Alabama5-13-110.2-1.8
3Georgia6-04-010.9-1.1
7Texas4-11-18.7-3.3
8LSU4-21-27.8-4.2
12Missouri5-12-18.5-3.5
17Tennessee5-12-18.1-3.9
18Ole Miss4-12-17.8-4.2
19Mississippi State4-12-18.1-3.9
26Oklahoma3-21-16.4-5.6
27Kentucky5-13-18.1-3.9
31Texas A&M3-31-35.7-6.3
33South Carolina3-31-35.9-6.1
37Florida4-22-26.6-5.4
82Vanderbilt3-30-34.4-7.6
88Arkansas2-40-33.3-8.7

This week's picks and rankings

Every week's top 25, game of the week and picks are in the weekly breakdown. Latest: Week 7 college football picks and power rankings: the model's case for LSU.

How the model works: each team starts from a preseason rating (last season, returning production, roster talent), and every game moves it using the final margin and play-by-play efficiency, adjusted for opponents. Projections simulate the rest of the season 10,000 times. More on the method. Data from CollegeFootballData.com.