Texas State Bobcats
Texas State is No. 66 of 138 in the model after week 6 (2-3, 0-1 in conference play). Its projected final record is 5.5-5.5, with a 2% chance to win out and a 0% chance to make the playoff.
2026 at a glance
- #66in the model (▼3 from last week)
- 5.5-5.5projected final record
- −0.2points vs. an average FBS team, neutral field
- 0%chance to make the playoff
Scouting report: Texas State's best unit is its pass offense (No. 14 in FBS); its weakest is its pass defense (No. 93). Overall, the offense ranks No. 15 and the defense No. 80, adjusted for opponents. These ranks rest on 6 games, so expect them to move week to week.
Résumé: No. 90, by wins above what a typical top-25 team would expect against Texas State's schedule. That measures what the record is worth; the power rank (No. 66) measures how good the team is.
Deserved wins: playing the way it has, Texas State would usually have won 2.9 games; it has won 2.
Postseason odds: 3% to win the Pac-12, 0% to make the 12-team playoff, 0% to earn a first-round bye and 0% to win the national title. 50% to reach 6 wins. (Model estimates; how the playoff odds work.)
Season stats
- 40points per game
- 32.2points allowed per game
- 52%offensive success rate
- 45%success rate allowed
Leaders
- Passing: Brad Jackson, 1,439 yards, 14 TD, 5 INT
- Rushing: Torrance Burgess Jr., 838 yards on 108 carries, 5 TD
- Receiving: Chris Dawn Jr., 29 catches, 348 yards, 4 TD
Schedule and win odds
| Week | Opponent | Result or win chance | Played like |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | at No. 7 Texas | L 7-59 | 6% win |
| 2 | vs UTSA | L 26-31 | 42% win |
| 3 | vs North Texas | W 49-35 | 100% win |
| 4 | vs Incarnate Word | W 63-10 | 99% win |
| 5 | at San Diego State | L 29-31 | 46% win |
| 7 | vs Colorado State | W 66-27 | 100% win |
| 8 | vs Utah State | 77% to win | |
| 9 | at No. 23 Boise State | 21% to win | |
| 10 | at Oregon State | 26% to win | |
| 11 | vs Fresno State | 51% to win | |
| 12 | vs Washington State | 76% to win |
Pac-12 in the model
| # | Team | Record | Conf. | Projected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23 | Boise State | 5-1 | 2-0 | 9.0-2.0 |
| 34 | Oregon State | 4-2 | 2-0 | 7.5-3.5 |
| 57 | Fresno State | 4-2 | 1-1 | 7.1-3.9 |
| 66 | Texas State | 2-3 | 0-1 | 5.5-5.5 |
| 101 | San Diego State | 2-4 | 1-1 | 4.1-6.9 |
| 104 | Colorado State | 2-3 | 0-1 | 3.9-7.1 |
| 109 | Washington State | 1-5 | 0-2 | 2.5-8.5 |
| 113 | Utah State | 2-4 | 1-1 | 3.5-7.5 |
This week's picks and rankings
Every week's top 25, game of the week and picks are in the weekly breakdown. Latest: Week 7 college football picks and power rankings: the model's case for LSU.