East Carolina Pirates: Playoff Odds & Schedule 2026

2026 at a glance

#67in the model (– from last week)
6.5-5.5projected final record
−0.4points vs. an average FBS team, neutral field
0%chance to make the playoff

Scouting report: East Carolina's best unit is its pass defense (No. 47 in FBS); its weakest is its rush offense (No. 73). Overall, the offense ranks No. 64 and the defense No. 51, adjusted for opponents. These ranks rest on 6 games, so expect them to move week to week.

Résumé: No. 59, by wins above what a typical top-25 team would expect against East Carolina's schedule. That measures what the record is worth; the power rank (No. 67) measures how good the team is.

Deserved wins: playing the way it has, East Carolina would usually have won 2.3 games; it has won 3.

Postseason odds: 5% to win the American Athletic, 0% to make the 12-team playoff, 0% to earn a first-round bye and 0% to win the national title. 79% to reach 6 wins. (Model estimates; how the playoff odds work.)

Rank by week: Wk 1: 73 → Wk 2: 64 → Wk 3: 67 → Wk 4: 67 → Wk 5: 67 → Wk 6: 67

Rankings for weeks 1-6 were rebuilt after launch from games through each week; later weeks are published live.

Season stats

23.5points per game
23.8points allowed per game
39%offensive success rate
34%success rate allowed

Success rate: share of plays that keep an offense on schedule (half the yards needed on first down, 70% on second, all of it on third or fourth). Garbage time excluded.

Leaders

Passing: Emory Williams, 655 yards, 7 TD, 2 INT
Rushing: TJ Engleman, 490 yards on 71 carries, 3 TD
Receiving: Nathaniel Joseph, 29 catches, 272 yards, 3 TD

Schedule and win odds

Week	Opponent	Result or win chance	Played like
1	at No. 1 Alabama	L 10-48	<1% win
2	vs App State	L 24-27	28% win
3	at Old Dominion	W 20-17	23% win
4	vs North Carolina Central	W 42-9	98% win
6	vs Rice	W 28-12	84% win
7	at UAB	L 17-30	32% win
8	at Memphis	29% to win
9	vs Temple	70% to win
10	vs South Florida	52% to win
11	at Charlotte	88% to win
12	at Army	51% to win
13	vs Florida Atlantic	61% to win

Win chances come from the model's current ratings, including home field. Played like: how often a team wins a game it played the way it played this one, based on the box score. Rankings shown are the model's.

American Athletic in the model

#	Team	Record	Conf.	Projected
40	Memphis	5-1	2-0	9.2-2.8
51	North Texas	4-2	2-0	8.1-3.9
55	UTSA	5-1	2-0	8.9-3.1
60	South Florida	4-2	1-2	7.9-4.1
67	East Carolina	3-2	1-0	6.5-5.5
74	Florida Atlantic	4-1	1-0	7.3-4.7
86	Army	3-2	2-1	6.3-5.7
92	Tulsa	3-3	0-2	6.2-5.8
93	Tulane	2-3	0-1	5.3-6.7
96	Navy	2-3	1-2	4.8-7.2
100	Temple	2-4	1-1	5.1-6.9
102	Rice	1-5	0-2	3.4-8.6
124	UAB	3-3	1-1	5.7-6.3
137	Charlotte	0-6	0-2	0.9-11.1

This week's picks and rankings

Every week's top 25, game of the week and picks are in the weekly breakdown. Latest: Week 7 college football picks and power rankings: the model's case for LSU.

How the model works: each team starts from a preseason rating (last season, returning production, roster talent), and every game moves it using the final margin and play-by-play efficiency, adjusted for opponents. Projections simulate the rest of the season 10,000 times. More on the method. Data from CollegeFootballData.com.