South Florida Bulls
South Florida is No. 60 of 138 in the model after week 6 (4-2, 1-2 in conference play). Its projected final record is 7.9-4.1, with a 8% chance to win out and a <1% chance to make the playoff.
2026 at a glance
- #60in the model (▼9 from last week)
- 7.9-4.1projected final record
- +1.4points vs. an average FBS team, neutral field
- <1%chance to make the playoff
Scouting report: South Florida's best unit is its rush offense (No. 33 in FBS); its weakest is its pass offense (No. 102). Overall, the offense ranks No. 68 and the defense No. 85, adjusted for opponents. These ranks rest on 6 games, so expect them to move week to week.
Résumé: No. 67, by wins above what a typical top-25 team would expect against South Florida's schedule. That measures what the record is worth; the power rank (No. 60) measures how good the team is.
Deserved wins: playing the way it has, South Florida would usually have won 3.4 games; it has won 4.
Postseason odds: 2% to win the American Athletic, <1% to make the 12-team playoff, 0% to earn a first-round bye and 0% to win the national title. 97% to reach 6 wins. (Model estimates; how the playoff odds work.)
Season stats
- 26.2points per game
- 17.3points allowed per game
- 47%offensive success rate
- 44%success rate allowed
Leaders
- Passing: Michael Van Buren Jr., 1,073 yards, 5 TD, 0 INT
- Rushing: D.J. Crowther, 476 yards on 94 carries, 7 TD
- Receiving: Bryson Rodgers, 27 catches, 312 yards, 2 TD
Schedule and win odds
| Week | Opponent | Result or win chance | Played like |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | vs Florida International | W 19-9 | >99% win |
| 2 | at Army | W 28-24 | 64% win |
| 3 | vs Delaware State | W 59-17 | 93% win |
| 4 | at Bowling Green | W 14-6 | 47% win |
| 5 | vs Temple | L 13-17 | 22% win |
| 6 | at UTSA | L 24-31 | 12% win |
| 7 | vs Kent State | 85% to win | |
| 9 | vs UAB | 83% to win | |
| 10 | at East Carolina | 48% to win | |
| 11 | vs Memphis | 46% to win | |
| 12 | at Florida Atlantic | 52% to win | |
| 13 | vs Tulane | 70% to win |
American Athletic in the model
| # | Team | Record | Conf. | Projected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 40 | Memphis | 5-1 | 2-0 | 9.2-2.8 |
| 51 | North Texas | 4-2 | 2-0 | 8.1-3.9 |
| 55 | UTSA | 5-1 | 2-0 | 8.9-3.1 |
| 60 | South Florida | 4-2 | 1-2 | 7.9-4.1 |
| 67 | East Carolina | 3-2 | 1-0 | 6.5-5.5 |
| 74 | Florida Atlantic | 4-1 | 1-0 | 7.3-4.7 |
| 86 | Army | 3-2 | 2-1 | 6.3-5.7 |
| 92 | Tulsa | 3-3 | 0-2 | 6.2-5.8 |
| 93 | Tulane | 2-3 | 0-1 | 5.3-6.7 |
| 96 | Navy | 2-3 | 1-2 | 4.8-7.2 |
| 100 | Temple | 2-4 | 1-1 | 5.1-6.9 |
| 102 | Rice | 1-5 | 0-2 | 3.4-8.6 |
| 124 | UAB | 3-3 | 1-1 | 5.7-6.3 |
| 137 | Charlotte | 0-6 | 0-2 | 0.9-11.1 |
This week's picks and rankings
Every week's top 25, game of the week and picks are in the weekly breakdown. Latest: Week 7 college football picks and power rankings: the model's case for LSU.