Army Black Knights
Army is No. 86 of 138 in the model after week 6 (3-2, 2-1 in conference play). Its projected final record is 6.3-5.7, with a 1% chance to win out and a 0% chance to make the playoff.
2026 at a glance
- #86in the model (▲5 from last week)
- 6.3-5.7projected final record
- −3.4points vs. an average FBS team, neutral field
- 0%chance to make the playoff
Scouting report: Army's best unit is its rush offense (No. 10 in FBS); its weakest is its pass defense (No. 119). Overall, the offense ranks No. 41 and the defense No. 117, adjusted for opponents. These ranks rest on 5 games, so expect them to move week to week.
Résumé: No. 77, by wins above what a typical top-25 team would expect against Army's schedule. That measures what the record is worth; the power rank (No. 86) measures how good the team is.
Deserved wins: playing the way it has, Army would usually have won 2.8 games; it has won 3.
Postseason odds: 4% to win the American Athletic, 0% to make the 12-team playoff, 0% to earn a first-round bye and 0% to win the national title. 71% to reach 6 wins. (Model estimates; how the playoff odds work.)
Season stats
- 30.6points per game
- 19.2points allowed per game
- 51%offensive success rate
- 43%success rate allowed
Leaders
- Passing: Cale Hellums, 356 yards, 3 TD, 1 INT
- Rushing: Cale Hellums, 524 yards on 104 carries, 8 TD
- Receiving: Bradyn Anderson, 7 catches, 102 yards, 0 TD
Schedule and win odds
| Week | Opponent | Result or win chance | Played like |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | vs Bryant | W 59-3 | >99% win |
| 2 | vs South Florida | L 24-28 | 36% win |
| 4 | at Temple | W 21-17 | 48% win |
| 5 | at Louisiana Tech | L 29-31 | 30% win |
| 6 | vs Tulane | W 20-17 | 62% win |
| 7 | vs Florida Atlantic | 53% to win | |
| 8 | at Tulsa | 45% to win | |
| 9 | at Memphis | 23% to win | |
| 10 | vs Air Force | 56% to win | |
| 12 | vs East Carolina | 49% to win | |
| 13 | at Rice | 53% to win | |
| 15 | vs Navy | 54% to win |
American Athletic in the model
| # | Team | Record | Conf. | Projected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 40 | Memphis | 5-1 | 2-0 | 9.2-2.8 |
| 51 | North Texas | 4-2 | 2-0 | 8.1-3.9 |
| 55 | UTSA | 5-1 | 2-0 | 8.9-3.1 |
| 60 | South Florida | 4-2 | 1-2 | 7.9-4.1 |
| 67 | East Carolina | 3-2 | 1-0 | 6.5-5.5 |
| 74 | Florida Atlantic | 4-1 | 1-0 | 7.3-4.7 |
| 86 | Army | 3-2 | 2-1 | 6.3-5.7 |
| 92 | Tulsa | 3-3 | 0-2 | 6.2-5.8 |
| 93 | Tulane | 2-3 | 0-1 | 5.3-6.7 |
| 96 | Navy | 2-3 | 1-2 | 4.8-7.2 |
| 100 | Temple | 2-4 | 1-1 | 5.1-6.9 |
| 102 | Rice | 1-5 | 0-2 | 3.4-8.6 |
| 124 | UAB | 3-3 | 1-1 | 5.7-6.3 |
| 137 | Charlotte | 0-6 | 0-2 | 0.9-11.1 |
This week's picks and rankings
Every week's top 25, game of the week and picks are in the weekly breakdown. Latest: Week 7 college football picks and power rankings: the model's case for LSU.