College Football Power Rankings · SEC

Alabama Crimson Tide

Alabama is No. 1 of 138 in the model after week 6 (5-1, 3-1 in conference play). Its projected final record is 10.2-1.8, with a 44% chance to win out and a 99% chance to make the playoff. The AP poll has Alabama at No. 6.

Vegas disagrees: the model rates Alabama about 10 points higher than the betting market does (Vegas rank: No. 9, model: No. 1). When the model and the line have been 6+ points apart, the line has been closer 62% of the time.

Updated · See Alabama in the full rankings

2026 at a glance

  • #1in the model (– from last week)
  • 10.2-1.8projected final record
  • +26.6points vs. an average FBS team, neutral field
  • 99%chance to make the playoff

Scouting report: Alabama's best unit is its rush offense (No. 3 in FBS); its weakest is its pass defense (No. 25). Overall, the offense ranks No. 9 and the defense No. 3, adjusted for opponents. These ranks rest on 6 games, so expect them to move week to week.

Résumé: No. 1, by wins above what a typical top-25 team would expect against Alabama's schedule. That measures what the record is worth; the power rank (No. 1) measures how good the team is.

Deserved wins: playing the way it has, Alabama would usually have won 5.3 games; it has won 5.

Postseason odds: 49% to win the SEC, 99% to make the 12-team playoff, 78% to earn a first-round bye and 25% to win the national title. >99% to reach 6 wins. (Model estimates; how the playoff odds work.)

Rank by week: Wk 1: 6 → Wk 2: 2 → Wk 3: 2 → Wk 4: 3 → Wk 5: 1 → Wk 6: 1
Week 1: No. 6Week 2: No. 2Week 3: No. 2Week 4: No. 3Week 5: No. 1Week 6: No. 1

Rankings for weeks 1-6 were rebuilt after launch from games through each week; later weeks are published live.

Season stats

  • 44.2points per game
  • 20.7points allowed per game
  • 50%offensive success rate
  • 36%success rate allowed

Success rate: share of plays that keep an offense on schedule (half the yards needed on first down, 70% on second, all of it on third or fourth). Garbage time excluded.

Leaders

  • Passing: Keelon Russell, 1,599 yards, 12 TD, 2 INT
  • Rushing: Trae'shawn Brown, 301 yards on 51 carries, 5 TD
  • Receiving: Ryan Williams, 23 catches, 415 yards, 4 TD

Schedule and win odds

WeekOpponentResult or win chancePlayed like
1vs East CarolinaW 48-10>99% win
2at KentuckyW 45-17100% win
3vs Florida StateW 50-3699% win
4vs South CarolinaW 49-1899% win
5at No. 19 Mississippi StateW 56-23100% win
6vs No. 3 GeorgiaL 17-2034% win
7at No. 17 Tennessee77% to win
8vs Texas A&M91% to win
10at No. 8 LSU67% to win
11at Vanderbilt95% to win
12vs Chattanooga100% to win
13vs Auburn93% to win

Win chances come from the model's current ratings, including home field. Played like: how often a team wins a game it played the way it played this one, based on the box score. Rankings shown are the model's.

SEC in the model

#TeamRecordConf.Projected
1Alabama5-13-110.2-1.8
3Georgia6-04-010.9-1.1
7Texas4-11-18.7-3.3
8LSU4-21-27.8-4.2
12Missouri5-12-18.5-3.5
17Tennessee5-12-18.1-3.9
18Ole Miss4-12-17.8-4.2
19Mississippi State4-12-18.1-3.9
26Oklahoma3-21-16.4-5.6
27Kentucky5-13-18.1-3.9
31Texas A&M3-31-35.7-6.3
33South Carolina3-31-35.9-6.1
37Florida4-22-26.6-5.4
42Auburn3-21-25.8-6.2
82Vanderbilt3-30-34.4-7.6
88Arkansas2-40-33.3-8.7

This week's picks and rankings

Every week's top 25, game of the week and picks are in the weekly breakdown. Latest: Week 7 college football picks and power rankings: the model's case for LSU.

How the model works: each team starts from a preseason rating (last season, returning production, roster talent), and every game moves it using the final margin and play-by-play efficiency, adjusted for opponents. Projections simulate the rest of the season 10,000 times. More on the method. Data from CollegeFootballData.com.