Old Dominion Monarchs
Old Dominion is No. 114 of 138 in the model after week 6 (2-4, 1-2 in conference play). Its projected final record is 4.3-7.7, with a 2% chance to win out and a 0% chance to make the playoff.
2026 at a glance
- #114in the model (▲2 from last week)
- 4.3-7.7projected final record
- −9.6points vs. an average FBS team, neutral field
- 0%chance to make the playoff
Scouting report: Old Dominion's best unit is its run defense (No. 14 in FBS); its weakest is its pass offense (No. 137). Overall, the offense ranks No. 136 and the defense No. 14, adjusted for opponents. These ranks rest on 7 games, so expect them to move week to week.
Résumé: No. 117, by wins above what a typical top-25 team would expect against Old Dominion's schedule. That measures what the record is worth; the power rank (No. 114) measures how good the team is.
Deserved wins: playing the way it has, Old Dominion would usually have won 2.2 games; it has won 2.
Postseason odds: 0% to win the Sun Belt, 0% to make the 12-team playoff, 0% to earn a first-round bye and 0% to win the national title. 13% to reach 6 wins. (Model estimates; how the playoff odds work.)
Season stats
- 17.7points per game
- 26.9points allowed per game
- 31%offensive success rate
- 38%success rate allowed
Leaders
- Passing: Quinn Henicle, 650 yards, 4 TD, 4 INT
- Rushing: Devin Roche, 379 yards on 95 carries, 0 TD
- Receiving: TJ Johnson, 16 catches, 262 yards, 3 TD
Schedule and win odds
| Week | Opponent | Result or win chance | Played like |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | vs Norfolk State | W 31-10 | 86% win |
| 2 | at Virginia Tech | L 21-44 | 2% win |
| 3 | vs East Carolina | L 17-20 | 77% win |
| 4 | vs No. 25 James Madison | L 20-46 | 4% win |
| 5 | at Georgia State | L 10-42 | <1% win |
| 6 | at App State | W 10-3 | 47% win |
| 7 | vs Georgia Southern | L 15-23 | 2% win |
| 8 | at Louisiana Tech | 30% to win | |
| 9 | vs Marshall | 67% to win | |
| 10 | at Coastal Carolina | 41% to win | |
| 12 | at UConn | 23% to win | |
| 13 | vs Southern Miss | 66% to win |
Sun Belt in the model
| # | Team | Record | Conf. | Projected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25 | James Madison | 6-0 | 3-0 | 10.9-1.1 |
| 58 | Georgia State | 4-1 | 1-0 | 8.5-3.5 |
| 73 | Louisiana | 4-2 | 1-1 | 7.9-4.1 |
| 78 | Georgia Southern | 2-4 | 1-1 | 5.9-6.1 |
| 87 | Louisiana Tech | 3-2 | 1-0 | 7.3-4.7 |
| 94 | Troy | 3-2 | 1-0 | 6.4-5.6 |
| 97 | South Alabama | 4-2 | 2-0 | 7.4-4.6 |
| 103 | App State | 3-2 | 0-1 | 6.1-5.9 |
| 106 | Arkansas State | 2-4 | 0-2 | 5.0-7.0 |
| 107 | Coastal Carolina | 2-4 | 1-1 | 4.3-7.7 |
| 114 | Old Dominion | 2-4 | 1-2 | 4.3-7.7 |
| 128 | Southern Miss | 1-4 | 0-1 | 3.4-8.6 |
| 129 | Marshall | 3-3 | 0-2 | 5.1-6.9 |
| 136 | UL Monroe | 0-5 | 0-1 | 1.6-10.4 |
This week's picks and rankings
Every week's top 25, game of the week and picks are in the weekly breakdown. Latest: Week 7 college football picks and power rankings: the model's case for LSU.