Florida Gators
Florida is No. 37 of 138 in the model after week 6 (4-2, 2-2 in conference play). Its projected final record is 6.6-5.4, with a 1% chance to win out and a 2% chance to make the playoff.
2026 at a glance
- #37in the model (▼18 from last week)
- 6.6-5.4projected final record
- +7.3points vs. an average FBS team, neutral field
- 2%chance to make the playoff
Scouting report: Florida's best unit is its pass offense (No. 26 in FBS); its weakest is its pass defense (No. 84). Overall, the offense ranks No. 23 and the defense No. 82, adjusted for opponents. These ranks rest on 6 games, so expect them to move week to week.
Résumé: No. 32, by wins above what a typical top-25 team would expect against Florida's schedule. That measures what the record is worth; the power rank (No. 37) measures how good the team is.
Deserved wins: playing the way it has, Florida would usually have won 4.1 games; it has won 4.
Postseason odds: 0% to win the SEC, 2% to make the 12-team playoff, 0% to earn a first-round bye and 0% to win the national title. 81% to reach 6 wins. (Model estimates; how the playoff odds work.)
Season stats
- 41.7points per game
- 29points allowed per game
- 49%offensive success rate
- 44%success rate allowed
Leaders
- Passing: Aaron Philo, 1,341 yards, 9 TD, 3 INT
- Rushing: Jadan Baugh, 672 yards on 110 carries, 12 TD
- Receiving: Dallas Wilson, 26 catches, 376 yards, 3 TD
Schedule and win odds
| Week | Opponent | Result or win chance | Played like |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | vs Florida Atlantic | W 66-21 | 99% win |
| 2 | vs Campbell | W 52-3 | 99% win |
| 3 | at Auburn | W 44-39 | 98% win |
| 4 | vs No. 18 Ole Miss | W 52-28 | >99% win |
| 5 | at No. 12 Missouri | L 17-45 | 12% win |
| 6 | vs South Carolina | L 19-38 | 5% win |
| 7 | at No. 7 Texas | 22% to win | |
| 9 | vs No. 3 Georgia | 17% to win | |
| 10 | vs Oklahoma | 52% to win | |
| 11 | at Kentucky | 39% to win | |
| 12 | vs Vanderbilt | 79% to win | |
| 13 | at Florida State | 49% to win |
SEC in the model
| # | Team | Record | Conf. | Projected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Alabama | 5-1 | 3-1 | 10.2-1.8 |
| 3 | Georgia | 6-0 | 4-0 | 10.9-1.1 |
| 7 | Texas | 4-1 | 1-1 | 8.7-3.3 |
| 8 | LSU | 4-2 | 1-2 | 7.8-4.2 |
| 12 | Missouri | 5-1 | 2-1 | 8.5-3.5 |
| 17 | Tennessee | 5-1 | 2-1 | 8.1-3.9 |
| 18 | Ole Miss | 4-1 | 2-1 | 7.8-4.2 |
| 19 | Mississippi State | 4-1 | 2-1 | 8.1-3.9 |
| 26 | Oklahoma | 3-2 | 1-1 | 6.4-5.6 |
| 27 | Kentucky | 5-1 | 3-1 | 8.1-3.9 |
| 31 | Texas A&M | 3-3 | 1-3 | 5.7-6.3 |
| 33 | South Carolina | 3-3 | 1-3 | 5.9-6.1 |
| 37 | Florida | 4-2 | 2-2 | 6.6-5.4 |
| 42 | Auburn | 3-2 | 1-2 | 5.8-6.2 |
| 82 | Vanderbilt | 3-3 | 0-3 | 4.4-7.6 |
| 88 | Arkansas | 2-4 | 0-3 | 3.3-8.7 |
This week's picks and rankings
Every week's top 25, game of the week and picks are in the weekly breakdown. Latest: Week 7 college football picks and power rankings: the model's case for LSU.