UTEP Miners 2026: Power Ranking, Playoff Odds & Schedule

2026 at a glance

#133in the model (– from last week)
3.1-8.9projected final record
−17.1points vs. an average FBS team, neutral field
0%chance to make the playoff

Scouting report: UTEP's best unit is its run defense (No. 87 in FBS); its weakest is its pass defense (No. 135). Overall, the offense ranks No. 133 and the defense No. 125, adjusted for opponents. These ranks rest on 6 games, so expect them to move week to week.

Résumé: No. 130, by wins above what a typical top-25 team would expect against UTEP's schedule. That measures what the record is worth; the power rank (No. 133) measures how good the team is.

Deserved wins: playing the way it has, UTEP would usually have won 1 games; it has won 1.

Postseason odds: 0% to win the Mountain West, 0% to make the 12-team playoff, 0% to earn a first-round bye and 0% to win the national title. 2% to reach 6 wins. (Model estimates; how the playoff odds work.)

Rank by week: Wk 1: 126 → Wk 2: 116 → Wk 3: 123 → Wk 4: 130 → Wk 5: 133 → Wk 6: 133

Rankings for weeks 1-6 were rebuilt after launch from games through each week; later weeks are published live.

Season stats

15.8points per game
39.5points allowed per game
31%offensive success rate
50%success rate allowed

Success rate: share of plays that keep an offense on schedule (half the yards needed on first down, 70% on second, all of it on third or fourth). Garbage time excluded.

Leaders

Passing: EJ Colson, 541 yards, 7 TD, 3 INT
Rushing: Raymond Moore III, 359 yards on 48 carries, 2 TD
Receiving: Carver Cheeks, 16 catches, 179 yards, 3 TD

Schedule and win odds

Week	Opponent	Result or win chance	Played like
1	at Oklahoma	L 0-51	<1% win
2	vs Texas Southern	W 51-10	99% win
3	at Michigan	L 17-52	1% win
4	vs Oregon State	L 7-33	4% win
5	at New Mexico	L 7-61	1% win
6	vs Nevada	L 13-30	0% win
7	vs San José State	39% to win
9	at North Dakota State	10% to win
10	vs Hawai'i	51% to win
11	vs Wyoming	50% to win
12	at Air Force	15% to win
13	at Northern Illinois	51% to win

Win chances come from the model's current ratings, including home field. Played like: how often a team wins a game it played the way it played this one, based on the box score. Rankings shown are the model's.

Mountain West in the model

#	Team	Record	Conf.	Projected
29	New Mexico	4-1	1-0	9.8-2.2
63	North Dakota State	5-1	2-1	9.4-2.6
64	UNLV	4-2	2-0	8.0-4.0
83	Air Force	4-1	2-1	7.9-4.1
111	Nevada	2-3	1-1	4.7-7.3
116	San José State	3-3	1-1	5.9-7.1
130	Wyoming	3-3	2-1	5.0-7.0
132	Hawai'i	1-5	0-3	3.4-8.6
133	UTEP	1-5	0-2	3.1-8.9
135	Northern Illinois	0-5	0-1	1.9-10.1

This week's picks and rankings

Every week's top 25, game of the week and picks are in the weekly breakdown. Latest: Week 7 college football picks and power rankings: the model's case for LSU.

How the model works: each team starts from a preseason rating (last season, returning production, roster talent), and every game moves it using the final margin and play-by-play efficiency, adjusted for opponents. Projections simulate the rest of the season 10,000 times. More on the method. Data from CollegeFootballData.com.