Air Force Falcons
Air Force is No. 83 of 138 in the model after week 6 (4-1, 2-1 in conference play). Its projected final record is 7.9-4.1, with a 2% chance to win out and a <1% chance to make the playoff.
2026 at a glance
- #83in the model (▲28 from last week)
- 7.9-4.1projected final record
- −3.1points vs. an average FBS team, neutral field
- <1%chance to make the playoff
Scouting report: Air Force's best unit is its rush offense (No. 12 in FBS); its weakest is its pass offense (No. 123). Overall, the offense ranks No. 59 and the defense No. 73, adjusted for opponents. These ranks rest on 5 games, so expect them to move week to week.
Résumé: No. 49, by wins above what a typical top-25 team would expect against Air Force's schedule. That measures what the record is worth; the power rank (No. 83) measures how good the team is.
Deserved wins: playing the way it has, Air Force would usually have won 4.1 games; it has won 4.
Postseason odds: 5% to win the Mountain West, <1% to make the 12-team playoff, 0% to earn a first-round bye and 0% to win the national title. 97% to reach 6 wins. (Model estimates; how the playoff odds work.)
Season stats
- 28.8points per game
- 17.4points allowed per game
- 48%offensive success rate
- 36%success rate allowed
Leaders
- Passing: Liam Szarka, 296 yards, 1 TD, 4 INT
- Rushing: Liam Szarka, 391 yards on 92 carries, 7 TD
- Receiving: Simon Kibbee, 6 catches, 103 yards, 0 TD
Schedule and win odds
| Week | Opponent | Result or win chance | Played like |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | vs Duquesne | W 34-0 | 99% win |
| 2 | vs North Dakota State | L 32-38 | 75% win |
| 4 | at Nevada | W 36-33 | 100% win |
| 5 | vs Navy | W 14-9 | 44% win |
| 6 | at Northern Illinois | W 28-7 | 92% win |
| 7 | vs UNLV | 48% to win | |
| 8 | at Wyoming | 71% to win | |
| 9 | vs UConn | 50% to win | |
| 10 | at Army | 44% to win | |
| 11 | vs San José State | 73% to win | |
| 12 | vs UTEP | 85% to win | |
| 13 | at New Mexico | 19% to win |
Mountain West in the model
| # | Team | Record | Conf. | Projected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 | New Mexico | 4-1 | 1-0 | 9.8-2.2 |
| 63 | North Dakota State | 5-1 | 2-1 | 9.4-2.6 |
| 64 | UNLV | 4-2 | 2-0 | 8.0-4.0 |
| 83 | Air Force | 4-1 | 2-1 | 7.9-4.1 |
| 111 | Nevada | 2-3 | 1-1 | 4.7-7.3 |
| 116 | San José State | 3-3 | 1-1 | 5.9-7.1 |
| 130 | Wyoming | 3-3 | 2-1 | 5.0-7.0 |
| 132 | Hawai'i | 1-5 | 0-3 | 3.4-8.6 |
| 133 | UTEP | 1-5 | 0-2 | 3.1-8.9 |
| 135 | Northern Illinois | 0-5 | 0-1 | 1.9-10.1 |
This week's picks and rankings
Every week's top 25, game of the week and picks are in the weekly breakdown. Latest: Week 7 college football picks and power rankings: the model's case for LSU.