New Mexico Lobos
New Mexico is No. 29 of 138 in the model after week 6 (4-1, 1-0 in conference play). Its projected final record is 9.8-2.2, with a 28% chance to win out and a 10% chance to make the playoff.
2026 at a glance
- #29in the model (▲5 from last week)
- 9.8-2.2projected final record
- +8.4points vs. an average FBS team, neutral field
- 10%chance to make the playoff
Scouting report: New Mexico's best unit is its pass defense (No. 14 in FBS); its weakest is its pass offense (No. 99). Overall, the offense ranks No. 74 and the defense No. 26, adjusted for opponents. These ranks rest on 5 games, so expect them to move week to week.
Résumé: No. 44, by wins above what a typical top-25 team would expect against New Mexico's schedule. That measures what the record is worth; the power rank (No. 29) measures how good the team is.
Deserved wins: playing the way it has, New Mexico would usually have won 4.3 games; it has won 4.
Postseason odds: 56% to win the Mountain West, 10% to make the 12-team playoff, 0% to earn a first-round bye and <1% to win the national title. >99% to reach 6 wins. (Model estimates; how the playoff odds work.)
Season stats
- 43.4points per game
- 10.6points allowed per game
- 45%offensive success rate
- 30%success rate allowed
Leaders
- Passing: Toa Faavae, 636 yards, 4 TD, 1 INT
- Rushing: Scottre Humphrey, 332 yards on 70 carries, 6 TD
- Receiving: Bailen George, 11 catches, 218 yards, 3 TD
Schedule and win odds
| Week | Opponent | Result or win chance | Played like |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | vs Central Michigan | W 38-7 | 99% win |
| 2 | vs Mercyhurst | W 70-7 | >99% win |
| 3 | at Oklahoma | L 6-14 | 34% win |
| 4 | at New Mexico State | W 42-18 | 100% win |
| 5 | vs UTEP | W 61-7 | 99% win |
| 7 | at Hawai'i | 90% to win | |
| 8 | vs North Dakota State | 74% to win | |
| 9 | at San José State | 84% to win | |
| 10 | at Nevada | 82% to win | |
| 11 | vs UNLV | 75% to win | |
| 12 | at Wyoming | 90% to win | |
| 13 | vs Air Force | 81% to win |
Mountain West in the model
| # | Team | Record | Conf. | Projected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 | New Mexico | 4-1 | 1-0 | 9.8-2.2 |
| 63 | North Dakota State | 5-1 | 2-1 | 9.4-2.6 |
| 64 | UNLV | 4-2 | 2-0 | 8.0-4.0 |
| 83 | Air Force | 4-1 | 2-1 | 7.9-4.1 |
| 111 | Nevada | 2-3 | 1-1 | 4.7-7.3 |
| 116 | San José State | 3-3 | 1-1 | 5.9-7.1 |
| 130 | Wyoming | 3-3 | 2-1 | 5.0-7.0 |
| 132 | Hawai'i | 1-5 | 0-3 | 3.4-8.6 |
| 133 | UTEP | 1-5 | 0-2 | 3.1-8.9 |
| 135 | Northern Illinois | 0-5 | 0-1 | 1.9-10.1 |
This week's picks and rankings
Every week's top 25, game of the week and picks are in the weekly breakdown. Latest: Week 7 college football picks and power rankings: the model's case for LSU.