Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders
Middle Tennessee is No. 121 of 138 in the model after week 6 (2-3, 0-1 in conference play). Its projected final record is 5.4-6.6, with a 1% chance to win out and a 0% chance to make the playoff.
2026 at a glance
- #121in the model (▲3 from last week)
- 5.4-6.6projected final record
- −10.9points vs. an average FBS team, neutral field
- 0%chance to make the playoff
Scouting report: Middle Tennessee's best unit is its pass defense (No. 79 in FBS); its weakest is its run defense (No. 129). Overall, the offense ranks No. 114 and the defense No. 112, adjusted for opponents. These ranks rest on 6 games, so expect them to move week to week.
Résumé: No. 115, by wins above what a typical top-25 team would expect against Middle Tennessee's schedule. That measures what the record is worth; the power rank (No. 121) measures how good the team is.
Deserved wins: playing the way it has, Middle Tennessee would usually have won 2.4 games; it has won 2.
Postseason odds: 1% to win the Conference USA, 0% to make the 12-team playoff, 0% to earn a first-round bye and 0% to win the national title. 45% to reach 6 wins. (Model estimates; how the playoff odds work.)
Season stats
- 22.8points per game
- 28.3points allowed per game
- 40%offensive success rate
- 47%success rate allowed
Leaders
- Passing: Roman Gagliano, 1,204 yards, 11 TD, 2 INT
- Rushing: Antonio Martin, 433 yards on 83 carries, 1 TD
- Receiving: Cam'Ron Lacy, 35 catches, 369 yards, 4 TD
Schedule and win odds
| Week | Opponent | Result or win chance | Played like |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | vs Murray State | W 38-14 | 99% win |
| 2 | at Marshall | L 26-28 | 26% win |
| 3 | vs Nevada | W 27-20 | 96% win |
| 4 | at Jacksonville State | L 13-23 | 22% win |
| 5 | at Kansas | L 0-55 | 1% win |
| 7 | vs Delaware | W 33-30 | 37% win |
| 8 | at Florida International | 25% to win | |
| 9 | vs Kennesaw State | 49% to win | |
| 10 | vs Western Kentucky | 55% to win | |
| 11 | at Liberty | 14% to win | |
| 12 | at Sam Houston | 44% to win | |
| 13 | vs New Mexico State | 55% to win |
Conference USA in the model
| # | Team | Record | Conf. | Projected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 49 | Liberty | 5-1 | 2-0 | 9.7-2.3 |
| 80 | Florida International | 3-2 | 1-0 | 6.7-5.3 |
| 95 | Jacksonville State | 4-2 | 2-0 | 8.2-3.8 |
| 105 | Kennesaw State | 1-4 | 0-1 | 3.9-8.1 |
| 117 | New Mexico State | 2-4 | 1-1 | 4.6-7.4 |
| 118 | Western Kentucky | 2-4 | 1-1 | 5.1-6.9 |
| 120 | Delaware | 2-3 | 0-1 | 4.6-7.4 |
| 121 | Middle Tennessee | 2-3 | 0-1 | 5.4-6.6 |
| 123 | Sam Houston | 1-4 | 0-1 | 3.6-8.4 |
| 127 | Missouri State | 1-4 | 0-1 | 4.1-7.9 |
This week's picks and rankings
Every week's top 25, game of the week and picks are in the weekly breakdown. Latest: Week 7 college football picks and power rankings: the model's case for LSU.