Sacramento State Hornets
Sacramento State is No. 138 of 138 in the model after week 6 (1-5, 0-3 in conference play). Its projected final record is 2.1-9.9, with a 0% chance to win out and a 0% chance to make the playoff.
2026 at a glance
- #138in the model (– from last week)
- 2.1-9.9projected final record
- −24.5points vs. an average FBS team, neutral field
- 0%chance to make the playoff
Scouting report: Sacramento State's best unit is its pass defense (No. 105 in FBS); its weakest is its run defense (No. 122). Overall, the offense ranks No. 128 and the defense No. 121, adjusted for opponents. These ranks rest on 6 games, so expect them to move week to week.
Résumé: No. 136, by wins above what a typical top-25 team would expect against Sacramento State's schedule. That measures what the record is worth; the power rank (No. 138) measures how good the team is.
Deserved wins: playing the way it has, Sacramento State would usually have won 1.2 games; it has won 1.
Postseason odds: 0% to win the Mid-American, 0% to make the 12-team playoff, 0% to earn a first-round bye and 0% to win the national title. <1% to reach 6 wins. (Model estimates; how the playoff odds work.)
Season stats
- 16.3points per game
- 30.2points allowed per game
- 40%offensive success rate
- 38%success rate allowed
Leaders
- Passing: Jackson Sharman, 1,001 yards, 6 TD, 5 INT
- Rushing: Isaiah Ene, 187 yards on 41 carries, 1 TD
- Receiving: Matthew Coleman, 32 catches, 454 yards, 4 TD
Schedule and win odds
| Week | Opponent | Result or win chance | Played like |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | at Eastern Michigan | L 17-28 | 10% win |
| 1 | vs Mississippi Valley State | W 52-0 | 99% win |
| 2 | at Fresno State | L 3-49 | 1% win |
| 3 | vs North Dakota State | L 10-31 | 12% win |
| 4 | vs Massachusetts | L 6-35 | 1% win |
| 6 | at Bowling Green | L 10-38 | 2% win |
| 7 | vs Ohio | 13% to win | |
| 8 | at Ball State | 22% to win | |
| 9 | vs Kent State | 27% to win | |
| 10 | vs Toledo | 11% to win | |
| 11 | at Central Michigan | 15% to win | |
| 13 | at Hawai'i | 22% to win |
Mid-American in the model
| # | Team | Record | Conf. | Projected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 65 | Western Michigan | 4-2 | 2-0 | 8.3-3.7 |
| 75 | Toledo | 4-2 | 1-1 | 8.0-4.0 |
| 89 | Ohio | 4-2 | 2-0 | 8.1-3.9 |
| 98 | Miami (OH) | 3-3 | 1-1 | 6.5-5.5 |
| 99 | Massachusetts | 4-2 | 1-2 | 7.4-4.6 |
| 115 | Eastern Michigan | 4-3 | 3-0 | 6.0-6.0 |
| 119 | Central Michigan | 3-3 | 1-1 | 6.1-5.9 |
| 122 | Buffalo | 3-3 | 1-1 | 6.0-6.0 |
| 125 | Bowling Green | 2-4 | 2-0 | 4.4-7.6 |
| 126 | Kent State | 2-4 | 1-2 | 4.8-7.2 |
| 131 | Ball State | 1-5 | 0-2 | 3.5-8.5 |
| 134 | Akron | 1-5 | 0-2 | 2.4-9.6 |
| 138 | Sacramento State | 1-5 | 0-3 | 2.1-9.9 |
This week's picks and rankings
Every week's top 25, game of the week and picks are in the weekly breakdown. Latest: Week 7 college football picks and power rankings: the model's case for LSU.