Marshall Thundering Herd
Marshall is No. 129 of 138 in the model after week 6 (3-3, 0-2 in conference play). Its projected final record is 5.1-6.9, with a <1% chance to win out and a 0% chance to make the playoff.
2026 at a glance
- #129in the model (▼6 from last week)
- 5.1-6.9projected final record
- −13.9points vs. an average FBS team, neutral field
- 0%chance to make the playoff
Scouting report: Marshall's best unit is its pass offense (No. 49 in FBS); its weakest is its pass defense (No. 138). Overall, the offense ranks No. 56 and the defense No. 138, adjusted for opponents. These ranks rest on 6 games, so expect them to move week to week.
Résumé: No. 98, by wins above what a typical top-25 team would expect against Marshall's schedule. That measures what the record is worth; the power rank (No. 129) measures how good the team is.
Deserved wins: playing the way it has, Marshall would usually have won 1.8 games; it has won 3.
Postseason odds: 0% to win the Sun Belt, 0% to make the 12-team playoff, 0% to earn a first-round bye and 0% to win the national title. 36% to reach 6 wins. (Model estimates; how the playoff odds work.)
Season stats
- 22points per game
- 33.7points allowed per game
- 45%offensive success rate
- 45%success rate allowed
Leaders
- Passing: Carlos Del Rio-Wilson, 1,014 yards, 6 TD, 5 INT
- Rushing: Joshon Barbie, 230 yards on 49 carries, 2 TD
- Receiving: Xayvion Turner-Bradshaw, 22 catches, 324 yards, 4 TD
Schedule and win odds
| Week | Opponent | Result or win chance | Played like |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | at Penn State | L 0-45 | 1% win |
| 2 | vs Middle Tennessee | W 28-26 | 75% win |
| 3 | at Missouri State | W 30-24 | 45% win |
| 4 | vs Gardner-Webb | W 36-35 | 26% win |
| 5 | at No. 25 James Madison | L 17-45 | 0% win |
| 6 | vs Coastal Carolina | L 21-27 | 33% win |
| 8 | vs South Alabama | 35% to win | |
| 9 | at Old Dominion | 33% to win | |
| 10 | at Georgia Southern | 19% to win | |
| 11 | vs App State | 41% to win | |
| 12 | vs Georgia State | 21% to win | |
| 13 | at UL Monroe | 61% to win |
Sun Belt in the model
| # | Team | Record | Conf. | Projected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25 | James Madison | 6-0 | 3-0 | 10.9-1.1 |
| 58 | Georgia State | 4-1 | 1-0 | 8.5-3.5 |
| 73 | Louisiana | 4-2 | 1-1 | 7.9-4.1 |
| 78 | Georgia Southern | 2-4 | 1-1 | 5.9-6.1 |
| 87 | Louisiana Tech | 3-2 | 1-0 | 7.3-4.7 |
| 94 | Troy | 3-2 | 1-0 | 6.4-5.6 |
| 97 | South Alabama | 4-2 | 2-0 | 7.4-4.6 |
| 103 | App State | 3-2 | 0-1 | 6.1-5.9 |
| 106 | Arkansas State | 2-4 | 0-2 | 5.0-7.0 |
| 107 | Coastal Carolina | 2-4 | 1-1 | 4.3-7.7 |
| 114 | Old Dominion | 2-4 | 1-2 | 4.3-7.7 |
| 128 | Southern Miss | 1-4 | 0-1 | 3.4-8.6 |
| 129 | Marshall | 3-3 | 0-2 | 5.1-6.9 |
| 136 | UL Monroe | 0-5 | 0-1 | 1.6-10.4 |
This week's picks and rankings
Every week's top 25, game of the week and picks are in the weekly breakdown. Latest: Week 7 college football picks and power rankings: the model's case for LSU.