College Football Power Rankings · Sun Belt

James Madison Dukes

James Madison is No. 25 of 138 in the model after week 6 (6-0, 3-0 in conference play). Its projected final record is 10.9-1.1, with a 30% chance to win out and a 38% chance to make the playoff.

Vegas disagrees: the model rates James Madison about 6 points higher than the betting market does (Vegas rank: No. 48, model: No. 25). When the model and the line have been 6+ points apart, the line has been closer 62% of the time.

Updated · See James Madison in the full rankings

2026 at a glance

  • #25in the model (– from last week)
  • 10.9-1.1projected final record
  • +9.1points vs. an average FBS team, neutral field
  • 38%chance to make the playoff

Scouting report: James Madison's best unit is its pass offense (No. 25 in FBS); its weakest is its pass defense (No. 63). Overall, the offense ranks No. 29 and the defense No. 52, adjusted for opponents. These ranks rest on 6 games, so expect them to move week to week.

Résumé: No. 14, by wins above what a typical top-25 team would expect against James Madison's schedule. That measures what the record is worth; the power rank (No. 25) measures how good the team is.

Deserved wins: playing the way it has, James Madison would usually have won 5.3 games; it has won 6.

Postseason odds: 65% to win the Sun Belt, 38% to make the 12-team playoff, <1% to earn a first-round bye and <1% to win the national title. 100% to reach 6 wins. (Model estimates; how the playoff odds work.)

Rank by week: Wk 1: 46 → Wk 2: 80 → Wk 3: 46 → Wk 4: 28 → Wk 5: 25 → Wk 6: 25
Week 1: No. 46Week 2: No. 80Week 3: No. 46Week 4: No. 28Week 5: No. 25Week 6: No. 25

Rankings for weeks 1-6 were rebuilt after launch from games through each week; later weeks are published live.

Season stats

  • 41.8points per game
  • 15points allowed per game
  • 45%offensive success rate
  • 37%success rate allowed

Success rate: share of plays that keep an offense on schedule (half the yards needed on first down, 70% on second, all of it on third or fourth). Garbage time excluded.

Leaders

  • Passing: Camden Coleman, 1,151 yards, 11 TD, 1 INT
  • Rushing: George Pettaway, 648 yards on 95 carries, 6 TD
  • Receiving: Corey Scott, 21 catches, 289 yards, 4 TD

Schedule and win odds

WeekOpponentResult or win chancePlayed like
1vs LibertyW 20-1396% win
2vs WagnerW 87-3>99% win
3at San Diego StateW 26-1399% win
4at Old DominionW 46-2097% win
5vs MarshallW 45-17100% win
6at Georgia SouthernW 27-2440% win
7vs Georgia State74% to win
8at App State81% to win
9vs Troy85% to win
10at Southern Miss89% to win
11at UConn67% to win
13vs Coastal Carolina90% to win

Win chances come from the model's current ratings, including home field. Played like: how often a team wins a game it played the way it played this one, based on the box score. Rankings shown are the model's.

Sun Belt in the model

#TeamRecordConf.Projected
25James Madison6-03-010.9-1.1
58Georgia State4-11-08.5-3.5
73Louisiana4-21-17.9-4.1
78Georgia Southern2-41-15.9-6.1
87Louisiana Tech3-21-07.3-4.7
94Troy3-21-06.4-5.6
97South Alabama4-22-07.4-4.6
103App State3-20-16.1-5.9
106Arkansas State2-40-25.0-7.0
107Coastal Carolina2-41-14.3-7.7
114Old Dominion2-41-24.3-7.7
128Southern Miss1-40-13.4-8.6
129Marshall3-30-25.1-6.9
136UL Monroe0-50-11.6-10.4

This week's picks and rankings

Every week's top 25, game of the week and picks are in the weekly breakdown. Latest: Week 7 college football picks and power rankings: the model's case for LSU.

How the model works: each team starts from a preseason rating (last season, returning production, roster talent), and every game moves it using the final margin and play-by-play efficiency, adjusted for opponents. Projections simulate the rest of the season 10,000 times. More on the method. Data from CollegeFootballData.com.