South Alabama Jaguars
South Alabama is No. 97 of 138 in the model after week 6 (4-2, 2-0 in conference play). Its projected final record is 7.4-4.6, with a 4% chance to win out and a 0% chance to make the playoff.
2026 at a glance
- #97in the model (▲10 from last week)
- 7.4-4.6projected final record
- −4.9points vs. an average FBS team, neutral field
- 0%chance to make the playoff
Scouting report: South Alabama's best unit is its pass offense (No. 30 in FBS); its weakest is its run defense (No. 133). Overall, the offense ranks No. 45 and the defense No. 131, adjusted for opponents. These ranks rest on 6 games, so expect them to move week to week.
Résumé: No. 64, by wins above what a typical top-25 team would expect against South Alabama's schedule. That measures what the record is worth; the power rank (No. 97) measures how good the team is.
Deserved wins: playing the way it has, South Alabama would usually have won 3.7 games; it has won 4.
Postseason odds: 5% to win the Sun Belt, 0% to make the 12-team playoff, 0% to earn a first-round bye and 0% to win the national title. 92% to reach 6 wins. (Model estimates; how the playoff odds work.)
Season stats
- 38.8points per game
- 34.5points allowed per game
- 43%offensive success rate
- 51%success rate allowed
Leaders
- Passing: Jared Hollins, 855 yards, 7 TD, 2 INT
- Rushing: Keenan Phillips, 444 yards on 80 carries, 5 TD
- Receiving: Brendan Jenkins, 21 catches, 355 yards, 3 TD
Schedule and win odds
| Week | Opponent | Result or win chance | Played like |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | vs SE Louisiana | W 39-14 | 97% win |
| 2 | at Tulane | L 24-28 | 36% win |
| 3 | vs Ohio | W 41-36 | 69% win |
| 4 | at Kentucky | L 21-45 | <1% win |
| 5 | vs UL Monroe | W 52-35 | 100% win |
| 6 | at Arkansas State | W 56-49 | 64% win |
| 8 | at Marshall | 65% to win | |
| 9 | vs Louisiana Tech | 54% to win | |
| 10 | at Louisiana | 37% to win | |
| 11 | vs Troy | 56% to win | |
| 12 | at Southern Miss | 64% to win | |
| 13 | vs App State | 63% to win |
Sun Belt in the model
| # | Team | Record | Conf. | Projected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25 | James Madison | 6-0 | 3-0 | 10.9-1.1 |
| 58 | Georgia State | 4-1 | 1-0 | 8.5-3.5 |
| 73 | Louisiana | 4-2 | 1-1 | 7.9-4.1 |
| 78 | Georgia Southern | 2-4 | 1-1 | 5.9-6.1 |
| 87 | Louisiana Tech | 3-2 | 1-0 | 7.3-4.7 |
| 94 | Troy | 3-2 | 1-0 | 6.4-5.6 |
| 97 | South Alabama | 4-2 | 2-0 | 7.4-4.6 |
| 103 | App State | 3-2 | 0-1 | 6.1-5.9 |
| 106 | Arkansas State | 2-4 | 0-2 | 5.0-7.0 |
| 107 | Coastal Carolina | 2-4 | 1-1 | 4.3-7.7 |
| 114 | Old Dominion | 2-4 | 1-2 | 4.3-7.7 |
| 128 | Southern Miss | 1-4 | 0-1 | 3.4-8.6 |
| 129 | Marshall | 3-3 | 0-2 | 5.1-6.9 |
| 136 | UL Monroe | 0-5 | 0-1 | 1.6-10.4 |
This week's picks and rankings
Every week's top 25, game of the week and picks are in the weekly breakdown. Latest: Week 7 college football picks and power rankings: the model's case for LSU.