Toledo Rockets
Toledo is No. 75 of 138 in the model after week 6 (4-2, 1-1 in conference play). Its projected final record is 8.0-4.0, with a 9% chance to win out and a 0% chance to make the playoff.
2026 at a glance
- #75in the model (▼22 from last week)
- 8.0-4.0projected final record
- −2.1points vs. an average FBS team, neutral field
- 0%chance to make the playoff
Scouting report: Toledo's best unit is its run defense (No. 52 in FBS); its weakest is its pass defense (No. 107). Overall, the offense ranks No. 77 and the defense No. 92, adjusted for opponents. These ranks rest on 6 games, so expect them to move week to week.
Résumé: No. 82, by wins above what a typical top-25 team would expect against Toledo's schedule. That measures what the record is worth; the power rank (No. 75) measures how good the team is.
Deserved wins: playing the way it has, Toledo would usually have won 3.9 games; it has won 4.
Postseason odds: 14% to win the Mid-American, 0% to make the 12-team playoff, 0% to earn a first-round bye and 0% to win the national title. 98% to reach 6 wins. (Model estimates; how the playoff odds work.)
Season stats
- 36.7points per game
- 25.2points allowed per game
- 43%offensive success rate
- 35%success rate allowed
Leaders
- Passing: John Alan Richter, 1,565 yards, 13 TD, 1 INT
- Rushing: Connor Walendzak, 386 yards on 67 carries, 7 TD
- Receiving: Adjatay Dabbs, 27 catches, 402 yards, 4 TD
Schedule and win odds
| Week | Opponent | Result or win chance | Played like |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | at Michigan State | L 20-30 | 21% win |
| 2 | vs Central Connecticut | W 63-10 | 99% win |
| 3 | vs Temple | W 49-48 | 55% win |
| 4 | vs San Diego State | W 41-16 | 100% win |
| 5 | at Ball State | W 39-24 | 91% win |
| 6 | vs Buffalo | L 8-23 | 21% win |
| 7 | at Eastern Michigan | 63% to win | |
| 8 | vs Western Michigan | 52% to win | |
| 10 | at Sacramento State | 89% to win | |
| 11 | vs Massachusetts | 65% to win | |
| 12 | vs Bowling Green | 78% to win | |
| 13 | at Ohio | 48% to win |
Mid-American in the model
| # | Team | Record | Conf. | Projected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 65 | Western Michigan | 4-2 | 2-0 | 8.3-3.7 |
| 75 | Toledo | 4-2 | 1-1 | 8.0-4.0 |
| 89 | Ohio | 4-2 | 2-0 | 8.1-3.9 |
| 98 | Miami (OH) | 3-3 | 1-1 | 6.5-5.5 |
| 99 | Massachusetts | 4-2 | 1-2 | 7.4-4.6 |
| 115 | Eastern Michigan | 4-3 | 3-0 | 6.0-6.0 |
| 119 | Central Michigan | 3-3 | 1-1 | 6.1-5.9 |
| 122 | Buffalo | 3-3 | 1-1 | 6.0-6.0 |
| 125 | Bowling Green | 2-4 | 2-0 | 4.4-7.6 |
| 126 | Kent State | 2-4 | 1-2 | 4.8-7.2 |
| 131 | Ball State | 1-5 | 0-2 | 3.5-8.5 |
| 134 | Akron | 1-5 | 0-2 | 2.4-9.6 |
| 138 | Sacramento State | 1-5 | 0-3 | 2.1-9.9 |
This week's picks and rankings
Every week's top 25, game of the week and picks are in the weekly breakdown. Latest: Week 7 college football picks and power rankings: the model's case for LSU.