Liberty Flames
Liberty is No. 49 of 138 in the model after week 6 (5-1, 2-0 in conference play). Its projected final record is 9.7-2.3, with a 26% chance to win out and a 2% chance to make the playoff.
2026 at a glance
- #49in the model (▲20 from last week)
- 9.7-2.3projected final record
- +3.6points vs. an average FBS team, neutral field
- 2%chance to make the playoff
Scouting report: Liberty's best unit is its rush offense (No. 30 in FBS); its weakest is its pass offense (No. 63). Overall, the offense ranks No. 44 and the defense No. 42, adjusted for opponents. These ranks rest on 6 games, so expect them to move week to week.
Résumé: No. 39, by wins above what a typical top-25 team would expect against Liberty's schedule. That measures what the record is worth; the power rank (No. 49) measures how good the team is.
Deserved wins: playing the way it has, Liberty would usually have won 4.8 games; it has won 5.
Postseason odds: 61% to win the Conference USA, 2% to make the 12-team playoff, 0% to earn a first-round bye and 0% to win the national title. >99% to reach 6 wins. (Model estimates; how the playoff odds work.)
Season stats
- 31.2points per game
- 15.3points allowed per game
- 49%offensive success rate
- 33%success rate allowed
Leaders
- Passing: Deshawn Purdie, 1,050 yards, 8 TD, 0 INT
- Rushing: Kam Davis, 524 yards on 74 carries, 4 TD
- Receiving: Makai Jackson, 22 catches, 515 yards, 5 TD
Schedule and win odds
| Week | Opponent | Result or win chance | Played like |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | at No. 25 James Madison | L 13-20 | 4% win |
| 2 | vs Gardner-Webb | W 24-23 | 89% win |
| 3 | vs Ball State | W 51-15 | 99% win |
| 4 | at Coastal Carolina | W 34-17 | 89% win |
| 5 | at Delaware | W 30-14 | 100% win |
| 6 | vs Sam Houston | W 35-3 | 99% win |
| 8 | at Kennesaw State | 71% to win | |
| 9 | vs Florida International | 71% to win | |
| 10 | at New Mexico State | 76% to win | |
| 11 | vs Middle Tennessee | 86% to win | |
| 12 | vs Western Kentucky | 85% to win | |
| 13 | at Missouri State | 80% to win |
Conference USA in the model
| # | Team | Record | Conf. | Projected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 49 | Liberty | 5-1 | 2-0 | 9.7-2.3 |
| 80 | Florida International | 3-2 | 1-0 | 6.7-5.3 |
| 95 | Jacksonville State | 4-2 | 2-0 | 8.2-3.8 |
| 105 | Kennesaw State | 1-4 | 0-1 | 3.9-8.1 |
| 117 | New Mexico State | 2-4 | 1-1 | 4.6-7.4 |
| 118 | Western Kentucky | 2-4 | 1-1 | 5.1-6.9 |
| 120 | Delaware | 2-3 | 0-1 | 4.6-7.4 |
| 121 | Middle Tennessee | 2-3 | 0-1 | 5.4-6.6 |
| 123 | Sam Houston | 1-4 | 0-1 | 3.6-8.4 |
| 127 | Missouri State | 1-4 | 0-1 | 4.1-7.9 |
This week's picks and rankings
Every week's top 25, game of the week and picks are in the weekly breakdown. Latest: Week 7 college football picks and power rankings: the model's case for LSU.