Jacksonville State Gamecocks

Jacksonville State is No. 95 of 138 in the model after week 6 (4-2, 2-0 in conference play). Its projected final record is 8.2-3.8, with a 12% chance to win out and a 0% chance to make the playoff.

Updated · See Jacksonville State in the full rankings

2026 at a glance

  • #95in the model (▲2 from last week)
  • 8.2-3.8projected final record
  • −4.8points vs. an average FBS team, neutral field
  • 0%chance to make the playoff

Scouting report: Jacksonville State's best unit is its pass offense (No. 41 in FBS); its weakest is its run defense (No. 110). Overall, the offense ranks No. 55 and the defense No. 88, adjusted for opponents. These ranks rest on 7 games, so expect them to move week to week.

Résumé: No. 70, by wins above what a typical top-25 team would expect against Jacksonville State's schedule. That measures what the record is worth; the power rank (No. 95) measures how good the team is.

Deserved wins: playing the way it has, Jacksonville State would usually have won 3.9 games; it has won 4.

Postseason odds: 22% to win the Conference USA, 0% to make the 12-team playoff, 0% to earn a first-round bye and 0% to win the national title. 99% to reach 6 wins. (Model estimates; how the playoff odds work.)

Rank by week: Wk 1: 108 → Wk 2: 108 → Wk 3: 101 → Wk 4: 100 → Wk 5: 97 → Wk 6: 95
Week 1: No. 108Week 2: No. 108Week 3: No. 101Week 4: No. 100Week 5: No. 97Week 6: No. 95

Rankings for weeks 1-6 were rebuilt after launch from games through each week; later weeks are published live.

Season stats

  • 27.3points per game
  • 22.7points allowed per game
  • 47%offensive success rate
  • 42%success rate allowed

Success rate: share of plays that keep an offense on schedule (half the yards needed on first down, 70% on second, all of it on third or fourth). Garbage time excluded.

Leaders

  • Passing: Caden Creel, 1,637 yards, 12 TD, 6 INT
  • Rushing: Caden Creel, 500 yards on 105 carries, 4 TD
  • Receiving: Deondre Johnson, 22 catches, 431 yards, 3 TD

Schedule and win odds

WeekOpponentResult or win chancePlayed like
1at North Dakota StateL 7-339% win
1vs Eastern KentuckyW 49-799% win
2at OhioL 27-2969% win
3vs Georgia SouthernW 31-2792% win
4vs Middle TennesseeW 23-1378% win
6at Kennesaw StateW 27-2646% win
7vs Florida InternationalW 27-2448% win
9at New Mexico State57% to win
10vs Sam Houston71% to win
11at Western Kentucky57% to win
12vs Missouri State74% to win
13at Delaware58% to win

Win chances come from the model's current ratings, including home field. Played like: how often a team wins a game it played the way it played this one, based on the box score. Rankings shown are the model's.

Conference USA in the model

#TeamRecordConf.Projected
49Liberty5-12-09.7-2.3
80Florida International3-21-06.7-5.3
105Kennesaw State1-40-13.9-8.1
117New Mexico State2-41-14.6-7.4
118Western Kentucky2-41-15.1-6.9
120Delaware2-30-14.6-7.4
121Middle Tennessee2-30-15.4-6.6
123Sam Houston1-40-13.6-8.4
127Missouri State1-40-14.1-7.9

This week's picks and rankings

Every week's top 25, game of the week and picks are in the weekly breakdown. Latest: Week 7 college football picks and power rankings: the model's case for LSU.

How the model works: each team starts from a preseason rating (last season, returning production, roster talent), and every game moves it using the final margin and play-by-play efficiency, adjusted for opponents. Projections simulate the rest of the season 10,000 times. More on the method. Data from CollegeFootballData.com.